Chartstopper: September 25, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Nasdaq-100® hits record high, ends week up 3%
- 10-year yields jump to 5.15%, highest since 2007
- Strong PMI and hawkish Fed comments lift hike odds
- Oil swings on mixed Iran diplomacy signals
- Meta's Muse agent boosts AI trade momentum
This Week
Positive sentiment to start the week initially pushed Treasury yields lower and the Nasdaq-100® to a record high, but that all changed on Wednesday.
The week started off strong, with the early success of Meta’s new Muse agent boosting the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Plus, U.S. oil prices fell $10 from last Friday to $90 per barrel as Saudi Arabia prepared to reopen its East-West pipeline and President Trump said the U.S. and Iran had “very good” talks and another meeting was scheduled “in the very near future.”
Then on Wednesday, 10-year Treasury yields rose 15 basis points (bp) in a day on fears the Federal Reserve will have to hikes rate more than expected because:
- The economy looks surprisingly strong, with the preliminary September S&P PMI unexpectedly rising to a five-year high and broad-based strength in new orders and employment for Manufacturing and Services.
- Fed Governor Michael Barr said his “base case” is for multiple rate hikes, after last week’s median Fed projection showed just one more hike, pushing up October rate hike odds about 65% from 55%.
- Hopes for a diplomatic resolution with Iran faded after Iran’s president spoke at the United Nations General Assembly, saying no meaningful negotiations can take place until the U.S. naval blockade ends and Iranian assets are unfrozen, helping push U.S. oil prices back above $95.
Reports yesterday that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a “phased deal” to reopen of the Strait of Hormuz helped lower oil prices a bit, but didn’t stop the run up in bond yields.
So, with concerns about rate hikes rising, 10-year Treasury yields are up about 15bp this week to 5.15%, around their high since 2007. Despite this, the Nasdaq-100® is up 3% for the week, just below Tuesday’s record high.
Next Week
Here are the top events I’m watching next week:
Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings (Aug.), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sept.), MU Earnings (Q3)
Wednesday: PCE Inflation and Spending (Aug.), ADP Private Jobs (Sept.)
Thursday: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sept.), Jobless Claims (week ending Sept. 26)
Friday: Nonfarm Jobs (Sept.)