For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – November 15, 2024 – Today, Zacks Equity Research The Progressive Corp. PGR, Chubb Ltd. CB, The Travelers Companies TRV, The Allstate Corp. ALL and Cincinnati Financial Corp. CINF
Industry: P&C Insurance
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2370167/5-pc-insurance-stocks-to-gain-from-prudent-underwriting
The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance (P&C) industry is likely to benefit from better pricing, prudent underwriting and exposure growth. Industry players like The Progressive Corp., Chubb Ltd., The Travelers Companies, The Allstate Corp. and Cincinnati Financial Corp. are poised to grow despite a rise in catastrophic activities. Given an active catastrophe environment, the policy renewal rate should accelerate. Also, the increasing adoption of technology and the emergence of insurtech will help the industry players function smoothly.
However, the third quarter of 2024 witnessed a decline in pricing after more than seven years of rate rise. Also, the two interest rate cuts and the possibility of more later remain concerns as insurers are direct beneficiaries of an improved rate environment. Nonetheless, an improvement in surplus and accelerated economic activities set the stage for a better M&A environment. Per a report in Carrier Management, AM Best expects profitable commercial lines and improving personal lines, coupled with higher investment returns on increased yields and strong cash flow, to drive the industry’s performance in 2024.
About the Industry
The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry comprises companies that provide commercial and personal property insurance, and casualty insurance products and services. Such insurance helps to safeguard property in case of any natural or man-made disasters. Liability coverages are also provided by some industry players.
The insurance coverage offered also includes automobiles, professional risk, marine, excess casualty, aviation, personal accident, commercial multi-peril, and professional indemnity and surety. Premiums are the primary source of revenues for these insurers. Better pricing and increased exposure drive premiums. These companies invest a portion of premiums to meet their commitments to policyholders. However, a likely interest rate cut in September and prospects of more later in the year raise concerns.
4 Trends Shaping the Future of the Property and Casualty Insurance Industry
Better pricing to help navigate claims: Catastrophes are a concern for insurers due to the high degree of losses incurred. Insurers implement price hikes to ensure uninterrupted claims payment. Global commercial insurance prices declined for the first time in seven years in the third quarter of 2024, attributable to heightened competition among insurers in the global property market, per Marsh Global Insurance Market Index.
Per Fitch Ratings, personal auto is likely to deliver better performance in 2024. Per Deloitte Insights, gross premiums are estimated to increase sixfold to $722 billion by 2030. China and North America should account for more than two-thirds of theglobal market per the report. Analysts at Swiss Re Institute predict premiums to grow 7% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.
Catastrophe loss induces volatility in underwriting profits: The property and casualty insurance industry is susceptible to catastrophe events, which drag down underwriting profits. Per a Colorado State University (CSU) report, 2024 will have a very active hurricane season. While AccuWeather estimates Hurricane Helene to induce $225 to $250 billion in economic loss and damage in the United States, it estimates $160 to $180 billion in economic loss from Hurricane Milton.
AM Best estimates cat loss to contribute 680 basis points to the expected combined ratio of 100.7 in 2024. Swiss Re estimates the combined ratio to improve from 2023 to 98.5% in 2024 and 2025. Underwriting profitability is expected to be under pressure, primarily due to soft performance in personal lines, which are expected to witness higher catastrophe losses per Insurance Information Institute and Milliman.
Nonetheless, they expect profitability in 2025. Exposure growth, better pricing, prudent underwriting and favorable reserve development will help withstand the blow. Also, frequent occurrences of natural disasters should accelerate the policy renewal rate.
Merger and acquisitions: Consolidation in the property and casualty industry is likely to continue as players look to diversify their operations into new business lines and geography. Buying businesses along the same lines will also continue as players look to gain market share and grow in their niche areas. With a sturdy capital level, the industry is witnessing a number of mergers, acquisitions and consolidations. Deloitte estimates more mergers and acquisitions in the reinsurance space in 2024.
Increased adoption of technology: The industry is witnessing increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing and robotic process automation that expedite business operations and save costs. The industry has also witnessed the emergence of insurtechs or technology-led insurers.
The focus of insurtech is mainly on the property and casualty insurance industry. Insurers continue to invest heavily in technology, generative AI in particular, as it is expected to improve basis points, scale and efficiencies. However, the use of technology poses cyber threats.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bright Prospects
The group's Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates rosy prospects in the near term. The Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry, which is housed within the broader Zacks Finance sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #40, which places it in the top 16% of more than 250 Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a positive earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Earnings estimates for the current year have increased 10.2% year over year.
Before we present a few property and casualty stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Outperforms Sector and the S&P 500
The Property and Casualty Insurance industry has performed better than its sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite year to date. The stocks in this industry have collectively risen 30.7% compared with the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s increase of 26% and the sector’s increase of 21.7%.
Current Valuation
On the basis of the trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B), which is commonly used for valuing insurance stocks, the industry is currently trading at 1.5X compared with the S&P 500’s 8.66X and the sector’s 3.82X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 1.67X, as low as 0.96X and at the median of 1.38X.
5 Property and Casualty Insurance Stocks to Focus On
Here, we are discussing four Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stocks and one Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock from the P&C Insurance industry. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Allstate: Headquartered in Northbrook, IL, Allstate is the third-largest property-casualty (P&C) insurer and the largest publicly-held personal lines carrier in the United States. Its premiums are poised to improve courtesy of rate increases in auto and home insurance businesses as well as an enhanced distribution strategy. The company keeps expanding its Protection Services business with strategic acquisitions, which position it for long-term growth. Divestments and cost-cutting measures are expected to enhance margins of this Zacks Rank #2 insurer.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 1,586% and 19% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 has moved up 5.7% and 2.8%, respectively, in the past seven days. The company delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 135.21%. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 7%. It has a VGM Score of A.
Travelers Companies: Based in New York, NY, Travelers Companies is one of the leading writers of auto and homeowners’ insurance plus commercial U.S. property-casualty insurance. High levels of retention, improved pricing, increased new business and a positive renewal premium change, banking on the strength of a compelling product portfolio of coverage across nine lines of business, poised it well for growth. Travelers’ commercial businesses should continue to perform well on the back of stability in the markets where it operates as well as the execution of its strategies. It carries a Zacks Rank #2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TRV’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 42% and 9.5% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 has moved up 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively, in the past seven days. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 25.40%. It has a VGM Score of A. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 11.2%.
Progressive Corporation: Based in Mayfield Village, OH, The Progressive Corporation is one of the major auto insurers in the country. It is the largest seller of motorcycle and boat policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written. A solid market presence, a convincing portfolio of products and services, and underwriting and operational expertise should help this insurer deliver steady profitability. It carries a Zacks Rank #2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 115.2% and 4.6.% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved 2.9% and 0.9% north, respectively, in the past 30 days. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 19.85%. It has a VGM Score of B. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 27.5%, better than the industry average of 11.3%.
Chubb Limited: Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, Chubb is one of the world’s largest providers of property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and the largest publicly traded P&C insurer based on market capitalization. Chubb is poised for long-term growth as it capitalizes on the potential of middle-market businesses (both domestic and international) as well as enhances traditional core packages and specialty products. Investments in various strategic initiatives bode well for growth. It focuses on cyber insurance, which has immense room for growth. This Zacks Rank #2 insurer has increased dividends for 31 straight years.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CB’s 2025 earnings suggests 6.8% year-over-year growth. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 2%. The consensus estimate for 2024 and 2025 earnings has moved 1.6% and 0.5% north, respectively, in the past 30 days. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 22.19%. It has a VGM Score of B.
Cincinnati Financial: Headquarters in Fairfield, OH, Cincinnati Financial markets property and casualty insurance. Prudent pricing, an agent-centric model, a higher level of insured exposures and disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re should benefit premiums. This Zacks Rank #3 boasts above-average industry premium growth. The board of directors had increased the annual cash dividend rate for 64 consecutive years, a record which is believed to be matched by only seven other U.S. publicly traded companies.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s 2024 and 2025 earnings suggests 5.3% and 13.01% year-over-year growth, respectively. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 8.3%. It delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 12.54%.
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Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpThe Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Chubb Limited (CB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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