Credit: The most-volatile scenario would come down to the last set of states to report
Here is the schedule of when polls will close in the first wave of key swing states (GMT -5):
- Virginia 7:00 PM EST
- Most of Florida 7:00 PM EST
- North Carolina 7:30 PM
- Ohio 7:30 PM
- Western Florida (panhandle) 8:00 PM
- Michigan 8:00 PM
- New Hampshire 8:00 PM
- Pennsylvania 8:00 PM
In order for Trump to have a realistic shot of winning the White House, will need to win all of the bolded. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, only needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania to stay in there.
But if the bolded all break to Trump, the market will go into a full-on panic mode. Stock markets will plunge and the US dollar will drop against the yen, euro and Swiss franc.
If that's the case, the odds at that moment would substantially favor Trump.
However, he will still need one of the following three states:
- Colorado 9:00 PM
- New Mexico 9:00 PM
- Nevada 10:00 PM
The Democrats look to be solidly ahead in Colorado (although early voting numbers look good for Republicans). Assume Democrats take Colorado and it gets very tricky.
At this point Trump will have 264 electoral votes. You need to get to 270. New Mexico has five electoral votes and Nevada has six.
Reporting first is New Mexico where polls close at 9 pm ET. If Trump wins it that could set up a tie at 269 electoral votes. In that case, the deadlock would be decided by the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans. So if he wins it, he's in and Nevada doesn't matter.
But if Clinton wins New Mexico, it will all come down to Nevada. The state was thought to be leaning towards Trump but early voting shows heavy Democratic participation, especially in the Democrat-leaning area around Las Vegas.
If Clinton could pull it off, it would mark an incredible swing in sentiment during the vote on Tuesday.
As a trader, be careful trying to trade using TV networks. They're ultra-cautious after the fiasco in 2000
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
