"The wisdom of crowds". "The crowd is always wrong". Which is it?

You hear those two comments often. Often from the same person. In the same breath.

Funny.

Mind you there is no shortage of mutually exclusive commentary in some heads:

• 'Trade the trend'
• 'Fade it, its overbought/oversold'

So is the crowd wise or a bunch of lemmings?

There is a way to tell.

It depends on how the mob complies its estimate:

That's from the Economist, the article there goes on with more on a forecasting website. Its gated, but you might have some luck: A new type of prediction market

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.