Electric carmaker Tesla TSLA is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter of 2024 on Jan. 29, after market close.
Tesla has soared about 51% over the past three months, outperforming the industry’s growth of 22.2%. The solid trend might continue, given that Tesla has a reasonable chance to beat earnings estimates this time.
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ETFs having a substantial allocation to this luxury carmaker like The Nightview Fund NITE, Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF TESL, ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF ARKQ, Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF VCR and ARK Innovation ETF ARKK are in focus ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings.
Earnings Whispers
Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +1.68% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). According to our methodology, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The electric carmaker saw negative earnings estimate revision of a penny over the past seven days for the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings indicates substantial year-over-year growth of 4.2% and revenue growth of 9.3%. The earnings track record of the company is good as it delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 0.13%.
Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote
The EV maker currently has a Wall Street analyst recommendation of 2.86 on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell) made by 39 brokerage firms. Of these, 12 are Strong Buy and two are Buy. Strong Buy and Buy, respectively, account for 30.77% and 5.13% of all recommendations. Based on short-term price targets offered by 34 analysts, the average price target for Tesla comes to $326.41, ranging from a low of $120.00 to a high of $550.00.
Trump Boost & Q4 Delivery Miss
Tesla has made a solid comeback, especially after Trump's election victory, and reclaimed its trillion-dollar market cap. The EV maker is expected to benefit from Musk's proximity to Trump's administration during its second term. Trump's administration could help expedite regulatory approval for new versions of Tesla's self-driving software and for its autonomous "robotaxis" to hit the road.
However, Tesla stock took a hit when the company missed estimates for fourth-quarter deliveries and recorded its first year-over-year decline in full-year vehicle deliveries in the company's history. Trump recently rolled back pro-EV policies, which also weighed on TSLA shares. Tesla shares fell 5% in a month.
This leading electric carmaker delivered 495,570 (471,930 Model 3/Y and 23,640 other models) cars worldwide in the fourth quarter. Though the figure is up 2.3% from the year-ago quarter and marks the second consecutive quarter of year-over-year delivery growth, it came below consensus analyst forecasts of 498,000 deliveries, according to FactSet. The miss reflects a relatively aged product and increased availability of lower-priced vehicles globally ahead of the hyped introduction of the cheaper new model (Juniper) in early/mid-2025 (read: Tesla Slips on Q4 Delivery Miss: ETFs in Focus).
Tesla produced 459,445 (436,718 Model 3/Y and 22,727 other models) vehicles during the quarter. For 2024, Tesla delivered 1.789 million vehicles, slightly down from 1.8 million, while producing 1.773 million units. This is the first year-over-year decline for Tesla, underscoring new competition and slowing demand.
What to Watch
Tesla remained focused on expanding its vehicle lineup, cutting costs and making investments in AI projects and production capacity despite uncertain demand and rivals pulling back on EV investments. The EV maker is expected to launch lower-cost versions of its existing models priced below $30,000 after subsidies in the first half of 2025.
On the last conference call, Tesla said that its new Cybertruck is on track to make a profit by the end of 2024.
ETFs in Focus
The Nightview Fund (NITE)
The Nightview Fund is an actively managed fund seeking long-term capital appreciation with the goal of outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return Index over a rolling 5-year period. It holds 20 stocks in its basket, with Tesla occupying the top position at 20.8% of its assets. The Nightview Fund charges 1.25% in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 4,000 shares. It has accumulated $26.7 million in its asset base since its launch on June 24 last year (read: Top Events of 2024 & ETF Predictions for 2025).
Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (TESL)
Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF uses an active management strategy to capture the potential of Tesla’s stock price movements while implementing an advanced options overlay to manage downside risks. It has an expense ratio of 1.20% and AUM of $18.6 million. TESL trades in an average daily volume of 39,000 shares (read: Buy the Dip in Tesla ETFs Amid Trump's Reversal of Pro-EV Policies?).
ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ)
ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF is an actively managed ETF seeking long-term capital appreciation by investing in companies that benefit from the development of products or services, and technological improvement and advancements in scientific research related to energy, automation and manufacturing, materials, and transportation. This approach results in a basket of 36 stocks, with Tesla occupying the top spot with a 14.6% share.
ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF has accumulated $1 billion in its asset base and charges 75 bps in fees per year. It trades in a volume of 123,000 shares a day on average.
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR)
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF currently follows the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index and holds 298 stocks in its basket. Of these, Tesla occupies the second position with a 15.3% allocation. Broadline retail takes the largest share at 24.8%, and automobile manufacturers, restaurants and home improvement retail round off the next three spots (read: Consumer Discretionary ETF Hits New 52-Week High).
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF charges investors 10 bps in annual fees, whereas volume is moderate at nearly 55,000 shares a day. The product has managed about $6.8 billion in its asset base and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
ARK Innovation ETF is an actively managed fund investing in companies that benefit from the development of new products or services, technological improvements and advancements in scientific research related to the areas of Intelligent Devices, Autonomous Mobility, Precision Therapies, Neural Networks, Next Gen Cloud, Digital Wallets, Digital Assets, Smart Contracts and Multiomic Technologies. The fund holds 34 securities in its basket, with Tesla occupying the top spot at 14.3%.
ARK Innovation ETF has gathered $1 billion in its asset base and charges 75 bps in fees per year from investors. It trades in an average daily volume of 8.5 million shares.
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