Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider AllianceBernstein?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. AllianceBernstein (AB) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.86 a share, just 25 days from its upcoming earnings release on February 4, 2025.
AB has an Earnings ESP figure of +5.31%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.86 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.82. AllianceBernstein is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AB is one of just a large database of Finance stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Simon Property (SPG).
Simon Property is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 3, 2025. SPG's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.44 a share 24 days from its next earnings release.
Simon Property's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +1.08% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.40.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, AB and SPG could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
