Which Nations Have No GDP Projections for 2023 Onwards?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports data for around 197 nations, which as of 2022, make up $105.6 trillion of the global economy. However, not all economies are created equal, and each has its own growth path with opportunities and challenges. These economies face different types of disruptions that threaten their growth and progress. And while some survive the crisis, others get engulfed.  

Here's a look at the nations that had their economic growth derailed. These nations currently have no Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections (2023-27)* due to their uncertain circumstances.

1. Syria

Syria was last reported as a $60 billion economy in 2010. The country witnessed its GDP grow three times its size in ten years from $19.86 billion in 2000. During the early 2000s, Syria embarked on the path of economic liberalization by diversifying the tightly managed state-focused economy. “In 2004, private banks were allowed to begin operating and in 2009 the stock market re-opened after more than 40 years,” according to a working paper by IMF.

During this period, Syria witnessed low inflation, manageable fiscal deficits and comfortable international reserves. However, in March 2011, Syria descended into an extremely violent civil war. The conflict in Syria inflicted a huge devastation resulting in its GDP shrinking by more than half between 2010 and 2020. The dramatic decline in Gross National Income per capita prompted the World Bank to reclassify Syria as a low-income country since 2018. There is no GDP data reporting for Syria since 2011.

2. Afghanistan

Afghanistan was reported as a $20.13 billion economy by the IMF in 2020. However, the messy political situation and change of regime since August 2021 has pushed Afghanistan towards a humanitarian and economic crisis. It is estimated that Afghanistan’s economy has faced a sharp contraction since August 2021, resulting in a loss of more than $5 billion in 12 months, taking away whatever was added in the last ten years to its economy. At the time of transition, international aid accounted for a staggering 75% of total government spending and nearly 40% of GDP, according to a UNDP report. Thus, without much outside support, the country’s economy is severely impacted. Afghanistan will need to learn to manage with limited domestic revenue that comes from agriculture and coal exports while working on newer revenue streams. Meanwhile, its people continue to struggle. According to a report, since September 2022, some nine in ten households have faced insufficient food consumption each month. Afghanistan’s GDP has not been reported since 2021. The World Bank classifies Afghanistan as a low-income nation.  

3. Lebanon

In the last three years, Lebanon has been engulfed in the most devastating crisis of modern times with its GDP shrinking from $54.9 billion in 2018 to $24.49 billion in 2020. The multi-pronged crisis, which started with financial trouble in October 2019, was aggravated by COVID-19 and the massive explosion at Port of Beirut in August 2020. According to the World Bank, “Lebanon’s deliberate depression is orchestrated by the country’s elite that has long captured the state and lived off its economic rents.”

Lebanon witnessed an economic contraction by 36.5% between 2019 and 2021, which led the World Bank to reduce its status from being an upper middle-income nation to a lower-middle income country in July 2022. “Brain drains and emigration have been constant features of Lebanese life since at least the country's 1975-1990 civil war, as Lebanon's diaspora is now estimated to be larger than its domestic population,” according to a report by Gallup. According to surveys over the last 15 years, 19-32% of the people have expressed the desire to leave the country permanently. However, this percentage reached a record high of 63% in 2021. No data is available since 2021.

4. Ukraine

Ukraine is the second-largest country by area in Europe after Russia. It is an emerging free market economy categorized as a ‘lower middle-income’ by the World Bank. Ukraine ranks among the world’s top producers of grain crops, including wheat, corn and barley. It is also home to rich mineral resources. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber and mercury. Ukraine ranks second for gas reserves in Europe, and the exports of goods and services contribute around 40% of its GDP. Ukraine’s economy, which almost touched $200 billion in 2021, was expected to clock a 3.6% growth in 2022, which is now reversed with a contraction of 35%. Amid the ongoing crisis, there are no projections for its GDP at present. According to a joint assessment, the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission and the World Bank estimated that Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction will require $349 billion as of June 1, 2022 (1.5 times of its last reported GDP), and this amount will become even larger as the war goes on.

5. Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka, an island nation in South Asia, has suffered one of the worst economic crises for the most of 2022. In April 2022, the government announced the first sovereign default in Sri Lanka’s history. Due to severely low foreign exchange reserve, the country experienced critical shortages of fuel, cooking gas, medicine, fertilizer and imported food items. Classified as a low middle-income economy by the World Bank, Sri Lanka’s GDP was reported at $88.97 billion in 2021 and is expected to be $73.74 billion in 2022 according to the IMF. The country’s economy is expected to continue to contract, although at a lower rate in 2023. Remittance from Sri Lankan diaspora reached a 10-year low of $5.5 billion in 2021 in comparison to $7.1 billion in 2020.  Likewise, its tourism industry, which was around $4.4 billion in size at its peak in 2018 with an arrival of 2.3 million tourists, only recorded $500 million in revenue in 2021. Sri Lanka has received aid from many nations as well as institutions to support imports of fuel and essential supplies. Amid the ongoing crisis, no projections are available from 2023 onwards.

6. Pakistan

Pakistan has frequently experienced macroeconomic crises resulting in low and volatile economic growth. During 2008-18, its growth of per capita gross domestic product averaged only around 2.1% annually. The World Bank classifies Pakistan as a lower middle-income economy. The country experienced heavy monsoon since June 2022, resulting in catastrophic flooding with almost 15% of the country underwater. The World Bank has estimated the total economic losses to reach about $15.2 billion. The World Bank has recently approved $1.692 billion in financing for five projects to support people living in flood-affected areas of Sindh Province. Pakistan’s economy continues to face challenges associated with a large current account deficit, high public debt and lower demand from its traditional export markets amid subdued global growth. The IMF projects Pakistan’s GDP to be $376.5 billion in 2022. No projections for the country are available for 2023 onwards. At the time of combined seventh and eighth reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, which allowed for disbursement of $1.1 billion, IMF’s report mentioned that “Pakistan is at a challenging economic juncture.”

In addition to these six, The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has projections for 2023, and not beyond. The remaining 190 nations have economic projections for 2023-27.

Disclaimer: The data used is based on IMF data for Gross Domestic Product released in October 2022. Nominal GDP is mentioned as GDP is at current prices, U.S. dollars. The report has been carefully prepared, and any exclusions or errors in it are totally unintentional. The author has no position in any stocks mentioned. Investors should consider the above information not as a de facto recommendation, but as an idea for further consideration. *As of October 2022 update by the IMF.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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