Credit: The December Consumer Credit shows consumer credit growth remains soft, and if one removes student loans - and adjusts for inflation - then the year-over-year growth is lower than GDP growth. Also this week there are two missed data sets because of the government shutdown were issued.
Unadjusted Consumer Credit Outstanding
Overall takeaways from this month's data:
- Student loan year-over-year growth rate had been decelerating gradually since the beginning of 2013 - but in the past year, there has been little change in the rate of growth..
- Student loans growth rate (US Government owned) accelerated 0.0% month-over-month and year-over-year growth is 8.0 %. [Note that the data last month was revised upward.
- Revolving credit (e.g.credit cards - and this series includes no student loans) and has been slightly decelerating in Jan 2017.
Let's take a quick look at consumer credit rate of growth adjusted for inflation. Currently the rate of year-over-year inflation-adjusted consumer credit growth is 2.7% - unfortunately we do not know 4Q2019 real GDP growth - but in 3Q2019 the year-over-year growth was 3.0%.
This past week, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asked "Is college still worth it?". The post concluded:
change expected wealth
The median net worth of the average college graduate is $292,100. Consider:
My take on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' post is that the net worth of college / university graduates is falling because the cost of that education is becoming more dear. Combine this with a large minority of graduates who are working in jobs not requiring a degree - or being educated in subjects which have little demand for these graduates.
Economic Releases This Past Week
The Econintersect Economic Index for February 2019 insignificantly declined, and remains below territory associated with normal expansions. The question remains whether this downward trend will continue. Note, our index is built on data sets which were not affected by the government shutdown - and it is most likely that other recent economic forecasts you have seen fudged the missing data. A forecast with fudged data is simply a guesstimate.
The following table summarizes the more significant economic releases this past week. For more detailed analysis - please visit our landing page which provides links to our complete analyses.
This week the data is mixed but predominately showing a slowing economy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
