Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Dick's Sporting Goods?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.50 a share, just 15 days from its upcoming earnings release on March 11, 2025.
Dick's Sporting Goods' Earnings ESP sits at +0.98%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.50 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.47. DKS is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
DKS is one of just a large database of Retail and Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Williams-Sonoma (WSM).
Williams-Sonoma, which is readying to report earnings on March 12, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $2.90 a share, and WSM is 16 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Williams-Sonoma is $2.88, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +0.47%.
DKS and WSM's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS)?
Before you invest in DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on the 7 best stocks to buy.
Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
