We expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX to surpass expectations when it reports third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 4, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $2.68 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $4.13 per share.
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Let's see how things might have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors Shaping VRTX's Upcoming Results
Vertex currently markets four cystic fibrosis (CF) products — Trikafta/Kaftrio, Symdeko (marketed as Symkevi in Europe), Orkambi and Kalydeco.
The company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven by strong demand for its blockbuster CF medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe) in both the United States and international markets. In international markets, expanded use in children, aged between two and five years, is expected to have been the key driver of growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales currently stand at $2.48 billion and $2.45 billion, respectively.
Meanwhile, higher Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of Vertex’s other CF drugs.
Shares of Vertex have rallied 17% so far this year against the industry’s decline of 3.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
While CF remains the main area of focus, Vertex has witnessed rapid success with its non-CF pipeline candidates in the past year.
Investors Await Casgevy Sales Numbers
Vertex and partner CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, was approved for two blood disorders, sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia, in the U.K., the United States, the EU and some other countries in 2023/early 2024. The approval diversified VRTX’s commercial opportunity.
Vertex leads the global development and commercialization of Casgevy under the terms of the 2021 agreement with support from CRISPR Therapeutics.
VRTX did not announce any sales figures for Casgevy in the last reported quarter as it plans to record revenues for Casgevy near the end of the patient journey. Vertex is expected to announce the first sales numbers of Casgevy in the third quarter.
Investors will be keen to get more updates related to the commercialization of Casgevy on the upcoming earnings call.
VRTX's Other Pipeline Updates
Apart from Vertex’s portfolio of marketed drugs, updates are also anticipated regarding pipeline candidates for which near-term launches are planned. These include suzetrigine (formerly known as VX-548) for acute pain and vanzacaftor triple for CF.
The FDA accepted Vertex’s new drug application (NDA), seeking approval for suzetrigine in moderate-to-severe acute pain in July 2024. The regulatory body has granted a priority review to the NDA, with a decision expected on Jan. 30, 2025.
Also, in July, the FDA accepted Vertex’s NDA seeking approval for vanza triple, a next-in-class triple combination regimen for treating people with CF aged six years and older. The FDA has also granted priority review to this NDA, with a decision expected on Jan 2, 2025.
An application seeking marketing authorization for vanza triple therapy to treat CF has also been filed in the EU and the United Kingdom.
Vertex is also rapidly advancing its mid- to late-stage pipeline in other disease areas like APOL1-mediated kidney diseases, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and cell therapy for type I diabetes.
VRTX's Earnings Surprise History
Vertex’s performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters. The company beat earnings estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing the same on the remaining occasion, delivering an earnings surprise of 2.76%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company missed earnings estimates by 11.57%.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote
What Our Model Predicts for VRTX
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vertex has an Earnings ESP of +0.14%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $4.13 per share.
Zacks Rank: Vertex currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Exelixis, Inc. EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +10.19% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Shares of EXEL have gained 18.8% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of EXEL beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the same twice, delivering an average surprise of 13.25%. EXEL will report third-quarter results on Oct. 31.
Biogen BIIB has an Earnings ESP of +2.81% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Biogen’s stock has lost 28.5% year to date. BIIB beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on the remaining occasion. On average, Biogen delivered an earnings surprise of 10.25% in the last four quarters. BIIB will report third-quarter results on Oct. 30.
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