The Japanese yen has been in great shape lately due to hawkish monetary policy. Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY has added 3.2% so far this year and about 1% over the past week.
More Gains Likely?
Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura recently said that the Japanese central bank (BoJ) must hike the policy rate to at least 1% in the latter part of fiscal year ending in Mar 2026. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato also warned that inflation may continue rising.
Moreover, data released earlier this week highlighted strong wage growth, bolstering expectations that the BoJ will continue raising interest rate this year. Like many analysts, we also believe that although the Fed may not cut rates as much as initially expected, any hawkish activity from Japan will help narrow the yield gap and strengthen the yen (read: BoJ Ends Negative Rate Era: ETFs to Win).
Surge in Yen Trading Activity
On Wednesday, interest in the yen soared, making it the most-traded currency against the dollar, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp, as quoted on Bloomberg. Yen option trading volume nearly doubled its previous yearly high as the currency gained strength against major peers. This rally was fueled by better-than-expected Japanese wage data, fueling expectations that the BoJ will continue lifting interest rates.
BOJ Policy Outlook and Rate Hike Expectations
The BOJ raised interest rates last month, and swap markets are now pricing in a 75% probability of another increase by July. The summary of opinions from the BOJ’s January meeting emphasized that the central bank is closely monitoring the yen’s value and may raise rates further to prevent excessive depreciation and its inflationary impact (read: Bank of Japan Raises Policy Rate to 0.5%: ETFs in Focus).
Yen Reaches Multi-Week Highs
On Thursday, the yen climbed to an eight-week high against the U.S. dollar after Tamura’s remarks advocating further rate hikes. In Tokyo trading, the yen strengthened to 151.81 per dollar—its highest level since Dec. 12 — before pulling back to 152.45 per dollar as of 06:16 GMT. The retreat followed Tamura’s clarification that he did not intend to imply that 1% should be the neutral rate.
Safe-Haven Demand of Yen
Apart from the BoJ’s hawkish stance, rising geopolitics and trade war tensions may boost the yen’s value ahead. Note that the yen is often viewed as a safe-haven asset. Japan's consistent current account surplus indicates that the country is a net creditor to the world, bolstering confidence in the yen during turbulent times.
Japan’s current account surplus sharply increased to JPY 3,352.5 billion in November 2024 from JPY 2,170.2 billion in the same month a year earlier. It marked the 22nd consecutive month of surplus in the current account and the largest amount since August.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
