Tesla Roadster Speed Bump: Does It Dent TSLA's Investment Thesis?
Tesla TSLA has moved its Roadster demonstration from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15, citing severe weather forecast for central Texas. On its own, a two-week slip is minor. But it is the latest in a long string of postponements, and for investors the real question is how much faith they can place in Tesla's timelines.
The Roadster Demo and Its Long Trail of Delays
The demo is planned at SpaceX's SPCX rocket test site in McGregor, near Waco. Tesla intends to make the car hover using a cold gas thruster package developed by SpaceX. Elon Musk has said the car should hit 60 mph in under two seconds on its own, and in under one second with the thrusters.
The Roadster was unveiled in 2017 with production promised for 2020. Nearly a decade on, there is still no production car, and even the public demo keeps sliding. Its target date has now been reset six times, per Electrek, starting with the end of 2025 and passing through April 1, late April, a vague "month or so," August and October 1. Tesla guides production in 2027 or 2028. But with the demo itself slipping so many times, investors have good reason to be skeptical of even that window.
Why Missed Targets Weigh on the TSLA Thesis
Investors have long been used to Tesla missing timelines, but each new slip makes it harder to trust the company's next promise. That matters because the investment case now rests far more on Tesla's other bets, namely AI-driven autonomy and the Optimus humanoid robot, which Musk has positioned as Tesla's next chapters of growth. These are the areas where investors are being asked to believe the most, on timelines that are the least proven.
TSLA Semi: Slow to Ramp, and Still Proving Itself
The Semi followed a similar path. It was revealed alongside the Roadster in 2017, and pandemic disruptions, supply chain problems and battery constraints slowed it down. A handful of trucks reached early customers like PepsiCo in 2022, but volume production never followed.
Tesla's new Semi factory at Gigafactory Nevada opened just last week. The 1.7-million-square-foot plant sits next to the 4680 cell lines and can build up to 50,000 trucks a year.
Demand is also catching up. A new freight coalition, ZET SCALE, picked Tesla to lead a purchase of 2,500 electric Class 8 trucks, with deliveries spread over several years to 10 regional hubs, including Los Angeles, Houston and Chicago. PACCAR’s PCAR Kenworth, RIDE and Volvo Group VLVLY are also suppliers, so Tesla won't fill the whole order. As lead supplier, though, its share would likely still top earlier deals, such as Einride's 500 truck orders in August and WattEV's 370 units in May.
But these orders have to be proven in deliveries, not announcements, and Tesla's record on timelines makes that a real test.
Demand Stabilizing, Margins Thinning, Capex Rising
Tesla’s core business is giving mixed signals. In the second quarter, Tesla ended with its biggest order backlog since 2023. Paid FSD subscribers rose 56% year over year to 1.48 million. Energy storage deployments reached 13.5 GWh, backed by a healthy backlog.
However, improving demand is yet to translate into stronger profitability. Automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, fell to 16.3%, reflecting continued pricing pressure. Energy storage margins also dropped sharply to 20.4% from 39.5%, partly due to warranty costs and weaker industrial pricing.
The long-term bets also have a way to go. Tesla's robotaxi network has logged roughly 380,000 driverless miles (as highlighted in its second-quarter earnings release), against more than 220 million rider-only miles for Waymo. Optimus, the humanoid robot, is at an early stage. Most importantly, 2026 capital spending is expected to exceed $25 billion and free cash flow will stay under pressure. These bets will need to produce meaningful financial returns to justify the spending.
Tesla’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Tesla have declined more than 20% year to date, underperforming the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, TSLA trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 12.29, way above the industry and its own five-year average. It carries a Value Score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings estimates for Tesla have been revised downward in the past 90 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts
The Roadster delay is small in itself, but it fits a pattern. Tesla's story has long mixed ambitious promises with delivery slip-ups, and with the stock down, margins under pressure and valuation stretched, there is little room left for more missed targets. Investors are being asked to wait on the Roadster, the Semi, robotaxis and Optimus at the same time, while spending more than $25 billion in capex.
Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), and the falling estimates support that view. Margin recovery, steadier execution and visible returns on heavy spending would be needed to rebuild confidence. Until then, existing shareholders may want to reassess their positions, while new investors would be wise to avoid the stock for now.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
