Technically Constructive: Higher Lows on Ukraine Talks

Today in Cook's Kitchen we take a look at the charts showing what a bottom might look like if progress is made in Russia-Ukraine talks in Turkey this week.

For starters, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have made higher lows vs their February 24 drop-and-reverse events. In the broader SPX, that's Tuesday's low of 4158 vs Feb 24's 4115.

Next in the video, I look at the primary tech components driving the Nasdaq: Semiconductors via the Philly SOX index and Software via the iShares ETF IGV.

Semis were still strong leaders coming into this year whereas Software was driving the retreat lower. These two areas will be key barometers of stock market health because if war has an impact on Semis -- that trade wars and supply chain problems never did -- then we'll know we are in new territory for the global economy.

And the Software bubble has had so much air taken out of it that there's not much else to release... if you believe that this sector -- built on recurring SaaS subscriptions that live in the clouds and never have supply chain constraints -- is the most immune to geopolitical disruption.

Some of my favorite ideas in Software during this bubble pop are Block SQ and Shopify SHOP. And PayPal PYPL would be my second choice after the-dongle-formerly-knowns-as-Square because I make the argument that regardless of their volatile Bitcoin infatuations, these landmark franchises will find ways to dominate the broader FinTech frontier.

Both PayPal and Block can afford to buy or squeeze smaller competitors in what will become a very crowded space these next few years. To understand what I mean, listen in the video for the reference I make to what happened in 2021 that was worth $140 billion.

I take a look at the Block and Shopify charts and mention the latter's notable announcement today to stop facilitating purchase and payments processing for Russia while maintaining operations for Ukraine.

Finally, I visit Semi-land via NVIDIA NVDA and Advanced Micro Devices AMD charts. I had already profiled AMD once again for this week's Top Stock Picks video and here is my Bull of the Day feature article today.

I continue to make the case that AMD can support a higher price/sales multiple like its big brother NVIDIA. In my article and video this week I explain that the two companies form an untouchable duopoly in high-performance computing (HPC) and AI applications for business, engineering, and science.

When someone asked me if I chose to celebrate AMD for International Women's Day, given its tremendous CEO Lisa Su, I had to deny that was a conscious plan.

But it's been suggested that the valuation disparity between the two -- the king and queen of AI, if you will -- may in part be due to viewing engineer Lisa Su as not as capable as showman Jensen Huang. But both are clearly visionary leaders who excel at organizing the top engineering talent in the world.

And all I can say is that she has already proven otherwise by turning AMD into an Intel-slayer as well as an NVDA rival.

Be sure to catch the short video to see if you agree that the market has a good shot at forming a bottom from these levels.

5 Stocks Set to Double

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.