The last week or so I’ve seen a ton of earnings reports that hit the mark, yet somehow still disappoint investors. This happens a lot more often than most investors would believe. You get a beat and raise quarter along with a 10% dump, or worse. What gives?
I like to use a line an old pit trader told me, Danny Riley aka D Boy. He says that sometimes the guys with the better seats make their moves ahead of you. Meaning, big, institutional money has an agenda you don’t realize, and they are moving on that agenda.
The latest short-term victim of this is Autodesk (ADSK) after the bell Tuesday. The company reported EPS of $2.17 on revenues of $1.57 billion. It also raised guidance for the FY and next quarter. When a stock’s ran up from under $200 to $317 in four months, the expectations can really swell. In this case, it just feels like the bar was set way too high for the guide Wall Street, or the guys with the better seats, wanted to see.
Moving Averages: Bartosiak starts by examining the stock's moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. He points out the significance of crossovers and divergences between these averages, which can indicate potential trend changes.
Support and Resistance Levels: Bartosiak identifies key support and resistance levels on the chart. These levels act as barriers that the stock price must breach or hold above, providing traders with critical decision points.
Chart Patterns: He discusses chart patterns like head and shoulders, cup and handle, or flags, and their relevance in predicting future price movements. These patterns can offer valuable insights into potential bullish or bearish trends.
Volume Analysis: He emphasizes the importance of volume analysis in confirming price trends. An increase in trading volume during a breakout or breakdown can validate the significance of a price move.
Dave Bartosiak's technical analysis approach adds depth to our understanding Autodesk’s stock chart. By paying attention to moving averages, support and resistance levels, chart patterns, technical indicators, and volume, he equips investors with a comprehensive toolkit for making well-informed decisions in the stock market. Remember, while technical analysis is a valuable tool, it's important to consider other factors like fundamental analysis and market sentiment before making investment choices.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
