Russia-Ukraine Conflict Dominates Markets

As the eyes of the world focus on the ongoing war in Ukraine, markets have plenty to react to. Not only have sanctions impacted investors in Russian companies, but also those companies and countries that share borders with Russia or are significant buyers of Russian energy. Many ETFs that track Russian equities have suspended creations and redemptions as sanctions make it impossible to execute trades, and liquidity is vanishing from the market. However, the VanEck Russia ETF which only suspended creations on Thursday witnessed $46 million of inflows as opportunistic investors hope to profit from the fire-sale prices of Russian stocks.

Russia-Focused ETFs Get Crushed by Sanctions 

• iShares MSCI Russia ETF (ERUS), -99.7%, $0 flows (creations suspended) 
• Franklin FTSE Russia ETF (FLRU), -97.5%, $0 flows (creations suspended) 
• VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX), -91.8%, $46.7 million of inflows (creations suspended Thursday) 

Infection of Neighbors and Major Russian Energy Consumers 

• iShares MSCI Austria Capped ETF (ISVK), -11.4%, $2 million inflows 
• iShares MSCI Finland Capped ETF (EFNL), -9.5%, $6.1 million of inflows 
• iShares MSCI Germany ETF (ISVP), -8.9%, -$35 million of outflows 
• Franklin FTSE Italy ETF (FLIY), -8.4%, $0 flows. 

Impact on Energy and Commodity Markets 

As two of the world’s largest producers of energy and agricultural commodities, the war is, of course, have a hugely disruptive impact on both the production and distribution of energy, farming of wheat, corn and other foodstuffs. Often described as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’, Ukraine typically exports $7 Billion of corn and wheat each year. Outside of Europe, Ukraine is also the largest supplier of wheat to China, so disruptions to supply are likely to have far-reaching side-effects worldwide. 

• Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT), +26%, $18 million of flows 

Sanctions that have hit Russia (the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas) have reverberated around global energy markets as significant long-term supply problems begin to be priced in. The rise in the cost of oil and natural gas is a further blow to families and businesses already struggling with historic levels of inflation. 

• United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), +17.4% 
• United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), +14% 
• Invesco DB Energy Fund (DBE), +11.5% 
• North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF (URNM), +10.3% 
• Global X Hydrogen ETF (HYDR), +10% 

However, the market for Carbon Credits has witnessed a huge sell-off. Some analysts suggest that market participants may be selling any excess CO2 certificates they have to cover their positions on the gas front and point out that Russian investors must cash in to avoid sanctions. 

• KraneShares European Carbon Allowance ETF (KEUA), -23%, +$650,000 inflows 
• KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF (KRBN), -20%, -$33 million outflows 

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.