Invesco IVZ is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results on Jan. 28, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have witnessed a rise on a year-over-year basis.
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In the last reported quarter, IVZ’s adjusted earnings met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from a decline in adjusted expenses and higher adjusted net revenues. An increase in the assets under management (AUM) balance on decent inflows was a positive too.
Invesco has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two quarters, met once and lagged in one of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 2.63%.
Invesco Ltd. Price and Consensus
Invesco Ltd. price-consensus-chart | Invesco Ltd. Quote
Invesco’s Q4 Earnings and Sales Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Invesco’s earnings of 51 cents has remained unchanged over the past seven days. The figure indicates a rise of 8.5% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $1.17 billion, suggesting an 11.7% rise.
Invesco’s Key Q4 Estimates & Factors to Note
Per the monthly metrics data published by Invesco, its preliminary total AUM as of Dec. 31, 2024, was $1.85 trillion, up 2.8% from the Sept. 30, 2024 level. Driven by the improvement in the AUM balance on the back of solid inflows and upbeat markets, the company’s investment management fee is expected to have risen. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment management fee is pegged at $1.02 billion, indicating an increase of 11.6% year over year.
The consensus estimate for performance fees of $30.9 million indicates a 58.5% jump from the prior-year quarter.
The consensus estimate for service and distribution fees of $376.3 million implies 9.2% growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other revenues is pegged at $52.7 million, suggesting a 14.6% rise.
On the cost front, while Invesco’s cost-saving initiatives are likely to have boosted its efficiency, the steady rise in compensation and marketing costs is expected to have had an adverse impact on overall expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.
Management expects the one-time implementation costs of Alpha to be approximately $15 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Hence, the company expects a modest increase in the overall expenses in the quarter.
2024 Outlook for IVZ
As part of the organizational changes, the company targets to generate $60 million in annual net savings.
Management expects overall expenses to be higher than the previous guidance of $3 billion.
Management anticipates the ratio of service and distribution fees plus third-party distribution expenses to management fees to be closer to 14%.
What Our Model Predicts for IVZ
According to our proven model, the chances of Invesco beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Invesco is -6.41%
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
Invesco’s Peers Worth a Look
Here are a couple of asset managers that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. VCTR is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on Feb. 6. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present and has an Earnings ESP of +1.23%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VCTR’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at $1.38 over the past week.
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 numbers on Jan. 29. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present and has an Earnings ESP of +1.99%. The consensus estimate for AMP’s quarterly earnings has been revised 1.1% downward to $8.97 per share over the past week.
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