California-based EV startups Rivian Automotive RIVN and Lucid Group LCID have released their fourth-quarter 2024 results. While the EV industry is facing headwinds — ranging from high costs to potential policy shifts under a Trump presidency — electrification remains the future of transportation. With that in mind, let’s break down Rivian and Lucid’s latest results and other developments to determine if either of these stocks deserves a place in your portfolio now.
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Rivian’s Q4 Highlights
Rivian incurred fourth-quarter 2024 loss of 52 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 66 cents per share as well as the year-ago period’s loss of $1.36. After missing the bottom-line estimates in the first three quarters of 2024, it finally surpassed the mark in the final quarter.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Rivian Automotive, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Rivian Automotive, Inc. Quote
The company delivered a total of 14,183 vehicles in the December quarter, up from 13,972 units a year ago. Revenues of $1.73 billion also topped expectations and increased 31.9% on a year-over-year basis, fueled by higher sales of regulatory credits to other automakers, growth in software and services revenues and a rise in R1’s average selling price with the launch of Tri-Motor variant.
The biggest highlight was Rivian achieving a gross profit for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2024, thanks to improvement in cost-cutting measures, efficiency in variable and fixed costs and higher revenue per vehicle. The company managed to cut $31,000 in cost per vehicle compared with the same quarter last year. Gross profit came in at $170 million, in stark contrast to the $660 million gross loss in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Rivian had $5.29 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Dec. 31, 2024, compared with $7.86 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.
Lucid’s Q4 Highlights
Lucid reported fourth-quarter 2024 loss of 22 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 26 cents per share as well as the year-ago period’s loss of 29 cents per share. And with that, LCID snapped nine straight quarters of bottom-line misses.
Lucid Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Lucid Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lucid Group, Inc. Quote
Deliveries of 3,099 units in the reported quarter were up from 1,734 units in the year-ago quarter. Revenues of $234.5 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $225 million and increased 49% on a year-over-year basis, primarily driven by strong vehicle deliveries.
The gross loss narrowed to $208.8 million from $253 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 amid a revenue uptick despite an increase in costs of goods sold. Meanwhile, operating expenses kept trending higher, totaling $524 million compared with $484 million in the corresponding quarter of 2023.
Lucid had $1.61 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Dec. 31, 2024, compared with $1.37 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.
RIVN’s Full-Year Results & Guidance
Rounding out 2024, Rivian’s total revenues were up 12% to $4.97 billion and net loss narrowed from $5.4 billion in 2023 to $4.74 billion.
However, RIVN provided a lower delivery forecast of 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles for 2025, down from 51,579 units delivered in 2024, taking into account potential changes in government policies, including shifts in EV incentives and tariffs under the Trump administration, which could impact demand. On the positive side, the company projects 2025 adjusted loss before interest taxes, depreciation and amortization in the band of $1.7-$1.9 billion, narrower than $2.7 billion incurred in 2024 amid continued cost efficiency.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s loss per share is pegged at $2.52, narrower than $4.04 in 2024. Estimates for 2025 loss have widened by 4 cents in the past 60 days.
LCID’s Full-Year Results & Outlook
Lucid’s 2024 revenues were up 35.7% to $807 million and net loss marginally narrowed to $2.7 billion from $2.8 billion in 2023.
In 2025, LCID expects to produce approximately 20,000 vehicles, more than double from 9,029 vehicles manufactured in 2024. Lucid didn’t provide any delivery target.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LCID’s 2025 loss is pegged at 90 cents/share. This suggests an improvement from $1.22 loss incurred last year. The loss estimate, however, widened 2 cents in the past 60 days.
RIVN Vs. LCID Valuation
At their current levels, Rivian trades at 2.09X forward sales, which is a pleasant discount to Lucid’s 4.76X, although both are at premiums to the auto sector’s 1.35X.
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How to Play RIVN & LCID Now
Rivian’s $5.8 billion Volkswagen deal, finalized in the final quarter of 2024, will bring $3.5 billion in funding over the next few years to enhance its next-gen EV tech. Additionally, RIVN’s future lineup, including R2, R3 and R3X models, targets budget-conscious buyers, with R2 set for launch in the first half of 2026. The company is making notable progress in production efficiency. It expects second-gen R1 models to cut material costs by roughly 20%, while R2's material costs are about half of R1’s. CEO Scaringe sees R2 as a key growth driver, with total production costs slashed by more than half, boosting efficiency and profitability. However, cash burn, federal loan uncertainty related to the Georgia plant under Trump and intensifying competition in the EV market remain concerns.
Lucid, on the other hand, is betting on its Gravity SUV model. The company also has strong financial backing from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which has invested $9 billion since 2018. However, frequent capital raises have led to shareholder dilution, a key risk. Alongside its latest results, Lucid announced the unexpected departure of CEO Peter Rawlinson. Chief operating officer Marc Winterhoff is now interim CEO. He stated that Gravity production will ramp up gradually but did not specify how many units will be produced in 2024. Lucid also reaffirmed that "Project Midsize," its next-generation platform for at least three vehicles, will be launched in late 2026. However, rising operating expenses mean Lucid will need more external funding, raising concerns about its financial stability.
Overall, Rivian is in a stronger position with a clearer path to cost reductions and profitability. Its valuation is also more favorable. In contrast, Lucid’s cost-cutting efforts are less substantial, and its ongoing financial struggles and shareholder dilution make it a riskier bet. Given these factors, Rivian is worth holding, while Lucid is best avoided now.
RIVN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), while LCID is #4 Ranked (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
