Red Cat Holdings, Inc. RCAT shares have risen 561.6% in the past six months, outperforming 25.4% growth of its industry and the 7.6% rise of the Zacks S&P 500 composite index.
Six Months Price Performance
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RCAT’s performance is significantly higher than that of its industry peers, Adeia Inc. ADEA and Inspired Entertainment, Inc. INSE. ADEA and INSE have gained 9.8% and 1.1% over the past year, respectively.
As of the last trading session, the RCAT stock closed at $10.9, which is 40.1% higher than its 52-week high of $15.3.
Here, we have laid out a thorough analysis of Red Cat to find out whether investors should purchase, hold or sell the company’s shares.
Execution Risks Could Hurt RCAT’s Growth Trajectory
The Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) contract and Palantir’s partnership serve Red Cat a great opportunity to boost its top line. However, scaling production efficiently while managing costs appears challenging. Delays, supply-chain hindrances, or cost overruns could hurt revenue growth and widen operating losses.
In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the top line plummeted 44.7% from the preceding quarter and 61% from the year-ago quarter.
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For the same quarter, RCAT recorded an operating loss of $9.1 million compared with a loss of $7.7 million in the preceding quarter and $4.9 million in the year-ago quarter, thereby amplifying its operational inefficiency during the time frame.
Any further deterioration in financial health due to the inability to meet the contract efficiently will be disastrous. The company may become reliant on external financing to fund its operations, exposing it to the risk associated with dilution of ownership via equity offerings or unfavorable debt terms, compelling the company to shoulder high-interest expenses.
Red Cat’s Liquidity Lags Industry
In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company’s current ratio of 1.43 underperformed the industry average of 2.16. It declined 2.5 times from the preceding quarter due to a sharp decrease in cash and cash equivalents.
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While a current ratio of more than 1 suggests effective short-term debt coverage, a consistent cash decline may put RCAT’s liquidity at risk.
RCAT’s Earnings Estimates Decline
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Red Cat’s fiscal 2025 loss has been revised from a loss of 33 cents per share to 50 cents per share in the past 60 days, whereas it incurred a loss of 36 cents per share from the preceding year.
Downward estimate revisions reinforce this negative outlook. In the past 60 days, one estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings has been revised downward, with no upward revisions, reflecting low analyst confidence in the company.
Red Cat is Not a Dividend-Friendly Stock
RCAT never paid out dividends and does not intend to. The only way to achieve a return on investment is stock price appreciation, which is not certain. Hence, it is an unsuitable stock for dividend-seeking investors.
Selling RCAT is the Best Option
Supply-chain disruption and cost overruns while fulfilling the SRR contract could deteriorate Red Cat’s financial health. Liquidity risks due to a consistent decline in cash prevail over the company. Bleak earnings prospects, coupled with an inability to pay dividends, look discouraging. We believe that the aforementioned factors could lead to a further decline in stock price.
We advise potential investors not to invest in Red Cat now and those who have enjoyed the rally during the past six months and a massive 1591.5% surge over the past year should not let their gains slip away and sell the stock now.
Red Cat carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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