Have you been paying attention to shares of Quad/Graphics (QUAD)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 8.2% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $8.39 in the previous session. Quad/Graphics has gained 52.8% since the start of the year compared to the 22.7% move for the Zacks Industrial Products sector and the 59.4% return for the Zacks Commercial Printing industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on October 28, 2024, Quad/Graphics reported EPS of $0.26 versus consensus estimate of $0.2.
For the current fiscal year, Quad/Graphics is expected to post earnings of $0.84 per share on $2.69 billion in revenues. This represents a 61.54% change in EPS on a -8.98% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $1.08 per share on $2.47 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 28.57% and -8.36%, respectively.
Valuation Metrics
Quad/Graphics may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Quad/Graphics has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are B and F, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 9.9X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is not in-line with the peer industry average of 36.9X. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 2.7X versus its peer group's average of 7.5X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
Zacks Rank
We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Quad/Graphics currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Quad/Graphics passes the test. Thus, it seems as though Quad/Graphics shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
