Nevro Corp. (NYSE:NVRO) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 10% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been disappointing. Like a receding glacier in a warming world, the share price has melted 58% in that period. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. Arguably, the fall was overdone.
While the last year has been tough for Nevro shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Nevro wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Nevro's revenue didn't grow at all in the last year. In fact, it fell 5.2%. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price drop of 58% is understandable given the company doesn't have profits to boast of. Fingers crossed this is the low ebb for the stock. We don't generally like to own companies with falling revenues and no profits, so we're pretty cautious of this one, at the moment.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Nevro in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 14% in the twelve months, Nevro shareholders did even worse, losing 58%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Nevro is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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