MPC Targets 3M Barrels per day in Q3: Can Strong Throughput Continue?
Marathon Petroleum MPC has targeted refinery throughput of approximately 3 million barrels per day (bpd) for the third quarter, reflecting the strong operating momentum and ability to run its system at high utilization. The target included 2.82 million bpd of crude oil and 185,000 bpd of other charge and blendstocks.
The guidance follows a strong second quarter, when MPC processed nearly 3 million bpd with 94% refinery utilization. Its Gulf Coast operations ran at 100% utilization, while the West Coast and Mid-Continent operated at 93% and 87%, respectively. The company also generated Refining & Marketing (R&M) adjusted EBITDA of $24.84 per barrel, supported by strong margins and operating execution.
MPC’s ability to maintain high throughput is supported by its integrated refining system and access to economically advantaged crude. Management highlighted the company’s ability to optimize feedstocks and product yields, helping it capture value across different market conditions. R&M margin capture reached 112% in the second quarter and 108% in the first half of 2026.
The company is also strengthening its refinery portfolio through targeted investments. The Robinson project is expected to enable approximately 10,000 bpd of incremental jet fuel production, while the El Paso project improves specialty gasoline production. These projects are designed to enhance MPC’s ability to produce higher-value products as demand remains strong across gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
MPC Compares Favorably With PSX and PBF
Phillips 66 PSX also delivered strong refinery operations in the second quarter. PSX reported 96% crude capacity utilization and an 86% clean product yield, highlighting solid operating performance across its refining system.
For MPC, the comparison with Phillips 66 is particularly relevant because both companies are benefiting from strong refining economics and high refinery utilization. Phillips 66 expects worldwide crude utilization to remain in the mid-90% range in the third quarter, reflecting expectations for strong refinery operations. The company also projects $100-$120 million in turnaround expenses and $325-$350 million in Corporate and Other costs.
PBF Energy PBF has also provided a specific third-quarter throughput outlook. PBF expects total throughput of 900,000-960,000 bpd, with guidance across its East Coast, Mid-Continent, Gulf Coast and West Coast operations.
The comparison shows the scale of MPC’s refining platform. PBF Energy’s throughput target remains substantial, while MPC is targeting more than three times that volume. PBF also expects renewable diesel production to rise to 18,000-20,000 bpd in the third quarter, adding another growth component to its operating outlook.
MPC’s Stock Performance, Valuation and Earnings Prospects
Refining stocks have delivered strong returns over the past six months, with Marathon Petroleum advancing 80.1%. PBF Energy performed slightly better with an 82.3% gain, while Phillips 66 rose 52.1%, compared with a 53.1% increase for the Oil Refining & Marketing sub-industry.
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Marathon Petroleum’s P/E multiple of 7.49 is below the sub-industry average of 8.46, suggesting that the stock offers a relatively attractive valuation.
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Investor sentiment around MPC’s earnings outlook has strengthened, reflected in 36.95% and 69.74% increases in consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027, respectively, over the past 60 days.
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MPC currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
