Horace Mann Educators Corporation’s HMN strategic initiatives to fuel profitability, niche market focus, a solid capital position and favorable growth estimates make it a good investment choice.
Horace Mann has a favorable VGM Score of B. This helps to identify stocks with the most attractive value, growth and momentum. Back-tested results have shown that stocks with a VGM Score of A or B, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), offer better returns.
Zacks Rank & Price Performance
Horace Mann currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. In the last six months, the stock has dropped 0.1% against the industry’s increase of 9.4%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Optimistic Growth Projection
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 earnings is pegged at $2.93, indicating an increase of 69.4% on 5.4% higher revenues of $1.5 billion.
Earnings Surprise History
The insurer has a decent track record of delivering an earnings surprise in three of the last four quarters, with the average beat being 28.61%.
Northbound Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 earnings has moved 1% north in the past 30 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism.
Business Tailwinds
Horace Mann, the largest multi-line financial services company serving the U.S. educator market, is well-poised to capitalize on the solid opportunity in the K-12 educator market. An 8% increase in K-12 teachers is anticipated between 2015 and 2027.
Further, a demographic shift is expected as baby boomers retire and millennials make up a higher percentage of the workforce. HMN, banking on a compelling portfolio, is well-placed to capitalize on the opportunity, given its strategic focus on designing products. The addition of Supplemental products enhanced cross-selling.
Horace Mann remains focused on improving product offerings, strengthening distribution and modernizing infrastructure. The insurer estimates to continue to improve pricing.
The company intends to increase auto rates by 15% to 16% by 2023. It expects about 10% to 11% of that rate to bear fruit in 2023, while non-rate underwriting actions will support higher rates. In property, HMN expects to increase rates by 8% to 9% through 2023.
The insurer has been witnessing the increased frequency of fire and non-weather water losses with higher claims. Thus, the company plans to file for property rate increases between 5% and 10% in more than 30 states, represented by 75% of the premium.
Horace Mann targets a combined ratio between 95 and 96 over the longer term. Also, HMN targets a long-term combined ratio in the low 90s. The company estimates generating about $50 million in excess capital annually to support growth initiatives, buy back shares and hike dividends.
Horace Mann estimates to continue to deliver double-digit return on equity.
Impressive Dividend History
Banking on operational excellence, Horace Mann increased its dividend for straight 14 years at a CAGR of 14%. Its current dividend yield of 3.1% is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. HMN targets a 50% dividend payout over the medium term.
Discounted Valuation
Horace Mann’s shares are trading at a discount than the industry average. Its price to book value of 1.42X is lower than the industry average of 3.0X. Before the valuation expands, it is preferable to take a position in the stock.
HMN has an impressive Value Score of A. Value stocks have a long history of showing superior returns
Other Stocks to Consider
Some other similar-ranked stocks from the insurance industry are Root, Inc. ROOT, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL and First American Financial Corporation FAF. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Root delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 22.44%. In the past year, ROOT has declined 91.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Root’s 2023 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 23.9%.
Kinsale Capital’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average being 15.16%. In the past year, KNSL has rallied 22%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinsale Capital’s 2023 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 22.6%.
First American has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates in each of the last six quarters. In the past year, FAF has dropped 28.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First American’s 2023 earnings has moved 3.9% north in the past 60 days.
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Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Root, Inc. (ROOT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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