With a market cap of $31.6 billion, Humana Inc. (HUM) is a leading healthcare plan provider in the United States, offering a wide range of medical and specialty insurance products. Humana also delivers health care services such as pharmacy solutions, senior-focused primary care, home health, and hospice care to its members and third parties. The Louisville, Kentucky-based company is expected to announce its fiscal Q4 earnings results after the market closes on Thursday, Jan. 23.
Ahead of the event, analysts expect the health insurer to report a loss of $2.23 per share, a significant decline compared to the loss of $0.11 per share recorded in the same quarter last year. The company has surpassed Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in three of the past four quarters while missing on another occasion. In the most recent quarter, HUM exceeded the consensus EPS estimates by a 19.5% margin.
For fiscal 2024, analysts expect HUM to report an EPS of $16.14, down 38.1% from $26.09 in fiscal 2023. However, the company is forecasted to recover with a projected 3.4% year-over-year growth, reaching an EPS of $16.68.
Over the past 52 weeks, HUM has dropped 43.5%, underperforming both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 26.3% rise and the iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF's (IHF) 8.2% decrease over the same period.
Shares of Humana rose 3.3% on Oct. 30, driven by its strong Q3 performance, which included adjusted EPS of $4.16, significantly beating the consensus. Revenue of $29.3 billion, up 14.8% year-over-year, also surpassed the consensus, fueled by higher per-member Medicare premiums and Medicare Advantage membership growth. The company raised its 2024 Medicare Advantage membership growth expectations to 265,000, reflecting better retention and non-DSNP sales. Additionally, Humana reaffirmed its adjusted EPS guidance of at least $16 for 2024, signaling stability despite challenges like the 2025 MA Star rating impact.
Analysts' consensus view on HUM stock is cautiously optimistic, with an overall "Moderate Buy" rating. Among 24 analysts covering the stock, six recommend a "Strong Buy," one suggests a "Moderate Buy," and 17 give a "Hold" rating. This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, with seven “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.
The average analyst price target for HUM is $286, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 9% from the current levels.
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