General Mills, Inc. GIS is trading at an attractive valuation, considering its price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, which is lower than both the Zacks Food – Miscellaneous industry and the broader Consumer Staples sector. GIS’ forward 12-month P/E ratio is 14.21, lower than the industry average of 15.82 and the sector average of 17.61.
This relative undervaluation, coupled with a strong Value Score of B, positions GIS as a compelling choice for value-focused investors within the consumer staple space.
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However, the stock has faced headwinds recently, declining 8.4% over the past three months compared with the industry’s drop of 4.9%. Investors should weigh its compelling valuation and growth prospects positioning against the recent stock underperformance and broader industry risks.
What Positions GIS Stock for Growth?
General Mills has cemented its status as a global leader in the packaged food industry, thanks to its impressive portfolio of iconic brands and ability to adapt to evolving market trends. Household names like Cheerios, Nature Valley, Betty Crocker, Pillsbury, Yoplait and Old El Paso are cornerstones of the company’s success, delivering strong consumer trust, brand loyalty and consistent revenue streams. To stay ahead, General Mills focuses on leveraging its established brands while expanding into high-growth areas. The company has strategically diversified its portfolio, venturing into natural and organic foods, plant-based offerings and premium indulgence categories to align with changing consumer tastes.
A key milestone in its diversification efforts was the 2018 acquisition of Blue Buffalo, a leading premium pet food brand. This move allowed GIS to enter the thriving pet food market, a resilient segment with strong demand, even during economic challenges. Blue Buffalo has been a growth catalyst, benefiting from pet owners' growing preference for premium, health-centric products.
Innovation remains at the core of General Mills’ strategy, particularly in revitalizing its legacy categories like breakfast cereals. By introducing new varieties, flavors and formulations, GIS keeps its offerings fresh and relevant. This approach has been instrumental in maintaining leadership in the cereal market, with Cheerios serving as a standout example.
General Mills also demonstrates operational efficiency through its Holistic Margin Management (“HMM”) strategy. For fiscal 2025, the company anticipates 4-5% cost savings in goods sold, exceeding its historical trend. These savings not only bolster margins but also provide the flexibility to reinvest in innovation and growth initiatives, solidifying the company’s competitive edge.
General Mills’ Dividend Strategy Deserves Mention
General Mills adopts a strategic and disciplined approach to capital allocation, focusing on funding growth initiatives while ensuring robust returns to shareholders. The company has a strong track record of rewarding investors through consistent dividend payouts. In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, General Mills generated $624 million in operating cash flow. During this period, it distributed $338 million in dividends and repurchased approximately 4.5 million shares for $300 million.
Given its strong foothold in the food industry and prospects for incremental revenue growth, we believe General Mills is well-positioned to deliver continued dividend growth over time.
General Mills: Risks to Watch
General Mills is navigating a challenging consumer environment marked by heightened price sensitivity, growing competition from private labels and subdued volume trends. Economic pressures, particularly inflation, are straining household budgets, pushing consumers to prioritize value and affordability. This has led to shifts in purchasing behavior, such as opting for smaller pack sizes or switching to lower-cost private-label alternatives, which poses a challenge to General Mills' pricing power and ability to sustain volume growth.
The rising demand for private-label products intensifies competition in key categories like cereals, snacks and convenience foods, where General Mills faces a tougher battle to differentiate its offerings. As consumers trim discretionary spending, premium product lines, including gourmet snacks, indulgent frozen foods and high-end baking mixes, are often the first to see reduced demand. This trend is particularly concerning for General Mills, given its significant investments in premium innovations.
Broader inflationary pressures also weigh on the company, with input costs expected to rise 3-4% in fiscal 2025. Apart from this, brand-building investments, while crucial for growth, are likely to affect the company’s margins in the short run. In fiscal 2025, the adjusted operating profit growth at constant currency or cc is anticipated between a decline of 2% and flat. Management anticipates adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth between a drop of 1% and an increase of 1% at cc.
Investor Strategy for GIS Stock
General Mills presents a mixed investment case, balancing attractive valuation metrics and growth potential against challenges in the current consumer environment. While the company’s long-term prospects remain supported by its strong foundation and growth initiatives, near-term uncertainties, including subdued adjusted profit and EPS guidance for fiscal 2025, suggest a cautious outlook. Investors should weigh the company's attractive valuation and strategic strengths against these challenges to assess the stock’s overall risk-reward profile. General Mills currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Top Three Consumer Staple Picks
Ingredion Incorporated INGR manufactures and sells sweeteners, starches, nutrition ingredients and biomaterial solutions derived from wet milling and processing corn and other starch-based materials. The company currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). INGR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.5%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ingredion’s current financial year’s earnings indicates growth of 12.5% from the year-ago reported number.
Freshpet Inc. FRPT manufactures, distributes and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). FRPT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 144.5%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s current financial-year sales and earnings implies growth of 27.3% and 224.3%, respectively, from the prior-year reported levels.
McCormick & Company MKC, which manufactures, markets and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavorful products, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. MKC has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.8%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for McCormick’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 0.6% and 8.2%, respectively, from the prior-year reported levels.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
