Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX is set to release fourth-quarter 2024 results before the opening bell on Jan. 23.
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The mining giant’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters while missed once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 15%, on average. Weaker copper prices and sales volumes are likely to have impacted FCX’s performance in the fourth quarter.
FCX stock has gained 5.6% in the past year compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 14.1% rise.
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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freeport’s fourth-quarter consolidated revenues is currently pegged at $6,003 million, which suggests a year-over-year increase of roughly 1.7%.
Factors at Play for FCX Stock
Freeport’s fourth-quarter results are expected to have been impacted by weaker copper prices. Weak demand in top consumer China due to the property crisis weighed on copper prices in 2024. The economic uncertainty in China and the absence of detailed policy plans raise concerns about future demand. The Fed delivered a widely anticipated quarter-point rate cut in December but signaled fewer reductions in 2025 due to persistent inflation. The looming threat of higher U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration adds further uncertainty to the market outlook.
While copper started the fourth quarter on a strong note, prices remained volatile through the quarter. Prices of copper were down nearly 12% in the fourth quarter, closing the quarter at around $4 per pound. Our estimate for fourth-quarter average realized price for copper for FCX currently stands at $4.06 per pound, which indicates a sequential decline of 5.6%.
Lower sales volumes are also likely to have affected the company’s performance in the December quarter. FCX’s third-quarter copper sales volumes fell roughly 7% year over year, impacted by the timing of shipments and reduced ore grades and operating rates in North America. Lower grades in North America are likely to continue to have impacted volumes in the fourth quarter. FCX, on its third-quarter call, said that it sees consolidated copper sales of 980 million pounds for the fourth quarter, suggesting a decline from 1,035 million pounds in the prior quarter.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. price-eps-surprise | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Quote
What Our Model Unveils for FCX
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Freeport this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Freeport is -0.38%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 25 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Methanex Corporation MEOH, slated to release earnings on Jan. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +24.91% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for MEOH’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 94 cents.
ATI Inc. ATI, slated to release earnings on Feb. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +3.91% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The consensus mark for ATI’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 60 cents.
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +36.76%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 23 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
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Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpFreeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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