Every year, firms like ours publish top 10 lists of predictions for the year ahead or, for the timid, the most important things from the past year, summarizing what has already happened and what we already knew. Top 10 lists are great reads, and there’s something in them for everyone. It’s also a lot for a business to focus and act on ten priorities. (Want proof? Take 30 seconds to list out the 10 commandments.)
So, for 2022, we challenged ourselves to look ahead, be specific and make it actionable, as we point out 2+2+2: 2 trends your business needs to learn about, 2 big changes you need to be prepared for, and the 2 hot foods and flavors to be looking out for. Our 2+2+2 in 2022 are:
2 Big Trends
Glasgow on the Menu. Food will become a bigger part of the U.S. climate action plan. Food activists claim it wasn’t central to this fall’s negotiations in Glasgow, but neither were specific actions to meet ambitious and necessary goals. However, changes in how the U.S. already eats has achieved 15% of President Biden’s latest commitments, and a shift to more foods from the ocean will get us to 20% (more on that next). Food becomes the low hanging fruit, pun intended, as we can address climate change without investment, except for printing new menus.
Eating more from the Ocean…mind the plastic and whatnot. Americans are going to keep looking for ways to eat more of their food from the ocean, a trend we’ve seen build over three years along with eating less meat. But consumers will also be thinking more than ever about plastic pollution, antibiotic use in aquaculture and forced labor. This will be the year the industry has to pick a path, either setting the stage for record-breaking growth or playing defense on practices other producers of other foods have pushed out.
2 Big Changes
Twice the shock, in two ways. Purchasing managers will drink a lot more coffee (and maybe whiskey after work). Inflation and supply are going to continue to be shockingly unpredictable and volatile. COVID and transport backlogs gave us a year of supply-side shock. Climate change has made harvests less dependable, and the weather forecast can now move prices in minutes, creating the same effect for costs. Meanwhile, the news about shortages moves consumers to buy more over the short-term, creating demand shock and depleting supplies quicker than ever.
Ping Pong. Should we go out or eat in? Let’s check the news and weather. The waves of coronavirus and public health responses are going to ping pong shoppers between grocery retail and emptying shelves only to return to restaurants en masse whenever a warm evening or declining infection rates appear. And when we get to the restaurant, get used to set meals and menus. The move to simplify kitchen operations continues as the restaurant industry wrestles with labor shortages and turnover. Both cooks and servers are in short supply, and many are relatively new. Set meals and menus offering a few well-matched courses — a bento box without the box or a happy meal for grown-ups—to order all at once make a return. No substitutions, no customization, fewer choices.
2 Hot New Flavors
Ginger…SNAP! We’re about to eat a lot more ginger a lot more often. And for good reason. It ticks the box for both sweet and spicy and has a bevy of wellness benefits. It also is making the crossover to being a fresh vegetable. Once a staple of American foragers and gardeners across the country, locally grown ginger (along with its cousin turmeric) has recently become more of a hipster-beloved farmer's market go-to, but that’s about to change. China is currently our biggest ginger supplier along with Brazil, both growing crops well suited for long haul shipping. But ginger grows well across much of the U.S. year round, so the question is: Will we continue to look abroad as we eat more of it, or will the global supply chain challenges move us to boost our own stateside production? I hope for the latter because fresh ginger is an excitingly different flavor.
Collard greens. Kale’s big brother takes a star turn thanks to better breeding, new recipes, and a little kitchen magic. One of the healthiest and hardiest greens now can be cooked in minutes or even eaten raw. Collard greens are one of the most climate-resistant produce items out there. Think of them as chard or kale but with thicker skin. They’re more drought-resistant, and like celery, U.S. growers can produce a fresh harvest nearly every week of the year. Expect to see them on more menus (and in home refrigerators) in the year ahead.
And before we close out, for good measure, one more for when we wake up in the new year:
Menus get 'Woke.' Following the “Me too” moment for restaurants and cleaning up behavior in the kitchen, it’s now time to show gratitude to the ingredients that have migrated to our shores and recognize the people whose traditions collectively create "American food." Coca-Cola, for example, owes its thanks to Africa for the kola nuts enslaved people brought with them to purify fetid water during the Middle Passage. Chiles also came from Africa before spreading around the world. It’s still debatable if hamburgers are the assimilated version of Middle Eastern kofta but it is not debatable that potatoes come from Peru. Immigration — and slavery — has made the American menu. In 2022, more and more chefs and restaurants will start recognizing that.
What are your food predictions for 2022? I’d love to hear from you, and if you’re on board, I’ll share a few on my LinkedIn page as the year winds down.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Arlin Wasserman
Arlin Wasserman is the founder and managing director of Changing Tastes. Over the past two decades, he has helped identify and catalyze some of the most significant shifts in the way business and consumers think about food.
Read Arlin's Bio