Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) captured Wall Street's attention by advancing the rapidly evolving field of quantum computing.
Its shares skyrocketed an astonishing 1,140% over the past six months. However, uncertainty and questions regarding its financial outlook created volatility, and the stock is down about 47% from its 52-week high. Clues to the next direction for this stock lie in one metric investors should keep an eye on.
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A long development road ahead for Rigetti
Recent breakthroughs have paved the way for applications that tackle highly complex calculations beyond the capabilities of most advanced conventional computers. Rigetti's efforts in this regard stand out because of its full-stack approach, designing and fabricating its quantum chips while offering cloud-based access to its systems for customers to develop quantum algorithms.
Despite the significant potential, with industry estimates projecting upwards of a $170 billion quantum computing market opportunity by 2024, Rigetti faces several challenges. It still needs to prove it can deliver practical, scalable solutions while fending off intense competition from tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet, who are pursuing alternative quantum systems.
For the full year 2024, the company generated only $10.8 million in revenue, reflecting limited commercial momentum as it continues to improve its technology. With a market capitalization of $3.04 billion, Rigetti stock is currently trading at an eye-watering 182 times its sales over the last year, a lofty growth premium suggesting the market has high expectations for the company to deliver.
One number for Rigetti investors to watch
Rigetti's latest Ankaa-3 quantum system, featuring an extensive hardware redesign and superior performance, might kick-start growth by opening the door for broader customer adoption.
According to a consensus of Wall Street analysts tracked by Yahoo! Finance, Rigetti is projected to reach $14 million in revenue this year, a solid 30% year-over-year increase. That number is a good start and could be key for the stock to rebound higher, particularly if the company outperforms estimates, affirming its strategy is working.
Ultimately, Rigetti shareholders will need patience and the stomach to handle possibly further wild stock price swings.
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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Dan Victor has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
