Escalation of Ukraine-Russian Conflict Boosts Crude Prices

January WTI crude oil (CLF25) today is up +1.30 (+1.89%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF25) is up +0.0090 (+0.46%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices today climbed to 1-1/2 week highs and are moderately higher.   Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is pushing crude prices higher after Ukraine said Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the city of Dnipro.  Today's dollar strength is limiting gains in crude.

Escalation of the Ukraine-Russian war is underpinning crude prices.  Ukraine said today that Russia launched an ICBM at the city of Dnipro, following Ukraine's expanded use of Western-provided long-range missiles.  On Wednesday, Ukraine fired British cruise missiles at military targets inside Russia for the first time after the UK government approved the action in response to Russia deploying North Korean troops in the Ukraine war.  Earlier this week, Ukraine carried out its first missile strikes on a border region in Russia using US-supplied missiles, which prompted Russian President Putin to approve an updated nuclear doctrine that expands the conditions for Russia to use atomic weapons, including in response to a conventional attack on its soil.  

A negative factor for crude was Tuesday's statement from the IAEA that said Iran has agreed to stop producing uranium enriched close to the level required for nuclear weapons, potentially easing tensions in the Middle East.  Also weighing on crude prices was a report from Reuters that said Hezbollah has agreed to a US proposal for a cease-fire with Israel.

A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -14% w/w to 50.97 million bbl in the week ended November 15.

Concerns that Middle East hostilities could escalate are bullish for crude when Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of a "crushing response" to Israel's recent air strikes on Iran.  An escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel could widen the conflict in the Middle East and disrupt the region's crude supplies.  

Crude demand in China has weakened and is a bearish factor for oil prices.  According to data compiled by Bloomberg, China's Oct apparent oil demand fell -5.4% y/y to 14.07 million bpd, and Jan-Oct apparent oil demand was down -4.03% y/y to 14.00 million bpd.  China is the world's second-largest crude consumer.

A decline in Russian crude exports is bullish for crude.  Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by -740,000 bpd to a 4-month low of 2.83 million bpd in the week to November 17.  Separately, Russia's Energy Ministry reported on October 23 that Russia's Sep crude production was 8.97 million bpd, down -13,000 bpd from Aug and just below the 8.98 million bpd output target it agreed to with OPEC+.

Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of November 15 were -4.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -4.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending November 8 fell -0.7%  w/w to 13.4 million bpd, falling back from the record 13.5 million bpd in the prior week.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending November 15 fell -1 rig to 478 rigs, just above the 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs posted in the week ending July 19.  The number of US oil rigs has fallen over the past two years from the 4-1/2 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022. 

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