Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

"Party like it's 1995: Dovish central banks are further improving the growth/policy trade-off. Mid-cycle rate cuts amid a resilient economic activity is a positive environment for risk assets."

-Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

|"Markets also trimmed the amount of Fed rate cuts they are expecting this year by -4.7bps to 80bps. We also saw the expected probability of a June cut fall to 79%, down from nearly 86% at the peak last week.

...the amount of ECB cuts priced by December coming down -6.1bps to 88bps."

-Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

* source: BofA's Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

| "Fed desperate to cut rates, ECB/BoE need to cut rates, SNB cutting rates, PBoC also cutting rates, only BoJ raising rates (by a minimal 10bps); 55 global central bank rate cuts over the past 6 months ; the DNA of today's "everything bull.""

-BofA's Michael Hartnett

* source: BofA's Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

| DB investor survey: inflation risk remains while investors are more optimistic on the economy...

* source: Deutsche Bank

| 10YR yield remains firmly above 4% | equities' sensitivity to interest rates is near record levels

* source: CNBC

* source: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler

| "There have been 27 market corrections of 10% or greater since 1964; every single one of them had at least one of three main catalysts: 1) higher rates; 2) rising unemployment; or 3) a global (exogenous) issue.

Today, we see higher rates as the likeliest threat to a continued uptrend in stocks."

-Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler

* source: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler

| The Hot & Cold Economy: (Economic) leading index posts first monthly gain in two years

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| rich valuations + bifurcated market

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Gold HIGHER | Dollar + Oil LOWER | TYields MIXED

-Headline + core durable goods beat consensus, breaking two months of consecutive drops

DJ +0.1% S&P500 +0.2% Nasdaq +0.4% R2K +0.5%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 4.261%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $2,181, WTI -0%, $82; Brent -0%, $86, Bitcoin $70,756

2) THIS WEEK:

light macro calendar

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• China manufacturing drive risks higher US Inflation, NY Fed says-BBG
• Analysis-Bank of Japan may be less dovish than markets think-RTRS
• Traders bet BOE more likely to start rate cuts than Fed or ECB-BBG
• US faces Liz Truss-style market shock as debt soars, warns watchdog-FT
• Hedge funds flock to Europe, ditch US stocks-RTRS
• Employment in 16 US states remains below pre-pandemic levels-BBG
• German consumer sentiment stays on slow recovery path, finds GfK-RTRS
• Australia consumer mood darkens anew in March – survey-RTRS
• S.Korea consumer sentiment dips as food inflation top election issue-RTRS
• US CEOs extend China stay on last-minute invite to meet Xi-BBG
• China seen delivering more RRR cuts this year to boost economy-BBG
• PBOC extends yuan support as it boosts fix by most since January-BBG
• China pushes banks speed approvals of new loans to private developers-RTRS
• Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing state poll hints at Biden comeback-AXIOS

• Meng Foon won't quit as a PGG Wrightson director-DESK
• Major bridge in Baltimore collapses after being struck by cargo ship-NYT
• Carlyle said to weigh $1 billion IPO for India IT firm Hexaware-BBG
• Beige likely sell up to 2.90% stake in Mankind Pharma via block deals-CNBC
• Boeing may turn to outsider CEO to tackle spiraling crisis-RTRS
• Hershey, Mondelez bet big on Easter as cocoa price crisis looms-RTRS
• Tesla offers U.S. customers a month's trial of its driver-assist technology-RTRS
• Trump's Truth Social to start trading as DJT-AXIOS

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Summer pump prices set to hit $4 a gallon just as Americans hit the road-BBG 2) US oil production set to rise to record as costs decline, Macquarie says-BBG 3) Russia’s crude shipments rebound even as sanctions snare tankers-BBG 4) Indian buyers of Venezuelan oil halt imports on sanction fears-BBG 5) Indian refiners buy more US crude as Russia sanctions tighten-RTRS 6) Russian, Chinese ships face risks despite Houthi pact-BBG