Equinor ASA EQNR is currently considered relatively undervalued, trading at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 1.44x. This is below the broader industry average of 3.56x and is also lower than other major energy companies, such as BP plc BP and Shell plc SHEL, which are trading at 2.84x and 3.41x EV/EBITDA, respectively. This lower valuation may indicate market skepticism about EQNR’s prospects or potential mispricing of the integrated company’s intrinsic value.
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Given its valuation, investors' key question is how to assess EQNR. To make a well-informed decision, it is crucial to first analyze this energy major's fundamental strengths and weaknesses.
EQNR: Offshore Operator & a Pioneer in Sustainable Energy
Equinor, Norway’s energy powerhouse, is a global leader in oil, gas, renewables and low-carbon solutions, supplying vital energy to Europe. As the world’s premier offshore operator and a pioneer in sustainable energy, Equinor delivers resilience amid volatility. Committed to net zero by 2050, it leverages 50 years of expertise to seize opportunities in the energy transition. With a robust portfolio and unwavering innovation, Equinor stands as a compelling investment for long-term value creation.
EQNR’s Strong Production Outlook & Robust Free Cash Flow
The integrated energy major has increased its production outlook, expecting more than 10% growth in oil and gas production from 2024 to 2027. The company now targets 2.2 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 2 million previously. This is driven by key projects like Bacalhau, Raya and Sparta, as well as strategic transactions in the U.S. onshore market and the U.K. North Sea. Additionally, the Norwegian continental shelf continues to deliver robust production, ensuring a steady output that supports Equinor’s long-term strategy.
Following its view for favorable upstream business, Equinor now expects to generate $23 billion in free cash flow over the next three years, a significant improvement achieved through portfolio optimization, cost-cutting and reduced capital expenditure. This increase in free cash flow strengthens Equinor’s capacity for competitive shareholder distributions and supports financial resilience, allowing the company to navigate market volatility effectively.
EQNR’s Competitive Capital Distribution & Low-Carbon Strategy
Its board of directors has approved a total capital distribution of $9 billion for 2025, which includes a two-cent increase in the quarterly cash dividend and $5 billion in share buybacks. This represents a strong commitment to shareholder returns and positions Equinor competitively among peers in capital distribution. The company also maintains flexibility in its investment strategy to sustain long-term distributions.
Equinor’s strengths also include its robust low-carbon and renewable strategy. Despite lowering its near-term renewables ambition, Equinor continues to build profitable low-carbon businesses. The company maintains an industry-leading emissions reduction target, to cut emissions by 50% by 2030. Its carbon capture and storage projects are advancing, with regulatory support and increasing customer interest. The company has also secured 60 million tons of CO2 storage capacity, enhancing its ability to meet long-term energy transition goals while delivering strong returns.
Should Investors Bet on EQNR Stock?
Despite positive developments, EQNR's stock dipped just 0.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry's 7.1% decline. The stock has yet to fully reflect its strong fundamentals, presenting an attractive entry point. Investors should consider adding the stock to their portfolio right away.
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Currently, the stock carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Notably, Wall Street’s average price target on EQNR suggests a 26.9% increase from its recent closing price of $22.63, with the highest target reaching $33, representing a potential gain of 45.8%. This indicates that current shareholders could see significant short-term benefits if the stock trends upward as projected.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
