The Walt Disney Company’s DIS third-quarter fiscal 2023 results, set to be reported on Aug 9, are expected to reflect a declining Disney+ subscriber base amid intensifying competition.
Per a recent JustWatch report, Disney+ had a 13% market share in the streaming space, trailing Warner Bros.’ WBD Max (formerly HBO Max), Netflix NFLX and Amazon AMZN.
Amazon prime video was #1 in terms of market share (21%) in the United States, trailed by Netflix (20%). Max and Hulu had 15% and 11% market share, respectively. Apple TV+ maintained its market share of 6%.
Our model estimates Disney+ subscriber base to hit 153.8 million compared with 157.8 million reported in the previous quarter.
The Walt Disney Company Revenue (TTM)
The Walt Disney Company revenue-ttm | The Walt Disney Company Quote
Moreover, our model suggests Media and Entertainment Distribution revenues to grow 1.5% year over year to $14.32 billion, moderating from the 3.1% growth reported in the previous quarter.
Click here to know how Disney’s overall third-quarter fiscal 2023 results are likely to be.
Weak Box Office to Hurt Top-Line Growth
Disney’s Theatrical Distribution segment is having a tough time after the unimpressive box office performances of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Elemental. Although Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3 did well, it is expected to not have been enough to drive Disney’s box office performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Warner Bros. also had a tough first half of 2023 with poor performances of Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. However, other notable peers like Comcast, Sony and Paramount Global had a better half thanks to Super Mario Bros. Movie, M3gan, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and Scream VI, respectively.
Our model estimate for the Theatrical Distribution segment is pegged at $668 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 7.8%. Disney reported Theatrical Distribution revenues of $767 million in the fiscal second quarter, which jumped 242.4% year over year.
Zacks Rank & Estimate Revisions
Disney currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings is pegged at 99 cents per share, down 3% over the past 30 days. Disney reported earnings of $1.09 per share in the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $22.44 billion, indicating growth of 4.34% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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