Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Dec. 4, 2024. In the last reported quarter, CBRL registered an earnings surprise of 12.5%.
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The Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.03, indicating a deterioration of 24.8% from $1.37 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $941.2 million. The projection suggests a 0.6% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors at Play
Cracker Barrel's fiscal first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from menu innovation, optimized pricing initiatives and loyalty programs. This and the focus on targeted promotions and an improved ordering experience are likely to have driven incremental traffic and sales in the to-be-reported quarter.
Increased focus on store design bodes well. The company has invested in maintenance capital to elevate the guest and employee experience, including updates to 35 parking lots, renovations to 30 back-of-house and 30 front-of-house areas and exterior repainting at another 30 stores. Additionally, CBRL has expanded its remodel initiatives to include a cost-effective "refresh" option. Initial results from pilot tests have been promising, showing strong returns at a lower investment. These efforts, part of Cracker Barrel’s defensive capital spending, are likely to have contributed to improved traffic and guest satisfaction, positioning the brand to drive incremental sales in the fiscal first quarter. For the fiscal first quarter, the company expects total revenues to be approximately $845.1 million.
During the fiscal first quarter, approximately 150 stores transitioned to a higher pricing tier, while 70 stores shifted to a lower tier. The company reported encouraging results, including strong flow through from these price changes and a surprising improvement in guests’ value perception. These developments are likely to have supported CBRL’s profitability while maintaining customer satisfaction. The company expects fiscal first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $45.8 million.
Elevated labor expenses, along with investments in advertising and higher store maintenance, are likely to have negatively impacted the bottom line in the fiscal first quarter. The company expects adjusted earnings per share to be approximately 45 cents in the fiscal first quarter.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP for CBRL: Cracker Barrel has an Earnings ESP of +5.83%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Cracker Barrel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.
Recent Retail-Wholesale Releases
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG reported mixed third-quarter 2024 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the seventh consecutive quarter but revenues missing the same after beating in the preceding four quarters.
CMG reported adjusted EPS of 27 cents, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents. The bottom line increased 17.4% from 23 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. Quarterly revenues of $2,793.6 million missed the consensus mark of $2,817 million. However, the top line rose 13% on a year-over-year basis. This upside was driven by strong comparable restaurant sales growth, backed by higher transactions of 3.3% as well as a 2.7% rise in average checks.
Shake Shack Inc. SHAK posted third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, wherein earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Both top and bottom lines also increased on a year-over-year basis. The company ramped up its investment in marketing strategies and programs aimed at increasing guest engagement and brand awareness, even amid a challenging market environment. These efforts have paid off, as the company has achieved some of the highest brand awareness levels on record, which, in turn, is fueling robust sales and profitability growth.
SHAK’s fiscal third-quarter adjusted EPS came in at 25 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported adjusted EPS of 17 cents. Quarterly revenues of $316.9 million beat the consensus mark of $315 million. The top line increased 14.7% on a year-over-year basis.
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. BJRI reported third-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. Both top and bottom lines increased on a year-over-year basis.
The company reported an adjusted loss per share of 13 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents. In the year-ago quarter, it recorded an adjusted loss per share of 16 cents. Total revenues of $325.7 million beat the consensus mark by 0.04%. The top line inched up 2.2% year over year. This upside was backed by strong guest traffic and Pizookie Meal Deal performance.
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