Celsius Holdings, Inc. CELH, a leading player in the energy drink market, finds itself at a crossroads as its stock struggles under mounting pressures. While the company's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.92 highlights the premium investors have historically placed on its growth potential, this valuation appears stretched compared to broader market benchmarks.
The current P/E for the S&P 500 stands at 22.66, while the Food – Miscellaneous industry average is far lower at 15.88. Such a stark disparity raises questions about whether Celsius Holdings can sustain the lofty expectations baked into its stock price. The company’s Value Score of D amplifies these concerns.
CELH Stock Appears Overvalued
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Steep Declines Undermine Market Confidence in CELH
Celsius Holdings' recent stock performance paints a concerning picture. Shares have tumbled 50.7% over the past six months, sharply contrasting the industry's modest growth of 0.9%. The stock's performance has significantly lagged behind the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the S&P 500, which grew 2.5% and 10.6%, respectively, during the same period.
CELH Price Performance vs. Industry, S&P 500 & Sector
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What’s Draining the Energy From Celsius Holdings?
Many internal and external pressures have contributed to Celsius Holdings’ recent stock decline. At the forefront is the company’s third-quarter 2024 performance, wherein revenues dropped a sharp 31% year over year to $265.7 million. The primary driver was a substantial inventory optimization adjustment from the company’s largest distributor, PepsiCo PEP, which impacted revenues by approximately $124 million. While management expects inventory levels to stabilize by the fourth quarter, this over-dependence on a single partner can be risky.
Adding to these headwinds are broader macroeconomic challenges affecting the energy drinks market. Shifting consumer preferences toward healthier alternatives, reduced discretionary spending and general fatigue with energy drinks are some of the pressures faced by players in the energy drinks industry. Declining consumer traffic in some key channels has been weighing on demand for Celsius Holdings. A weaker consumer outlook can impact the company’s growth, particularly given its position as a premium brand in the energy drink sector.
Competitive pressures are further compounding the company’s struggles. Established industry giants like Red Bull and Monster Beverage have been bolstering their portfolios with sugar-free and health-focused products, posing a threat to CELH’s market share. This dynamic is particularly noticeable in convenience stores, where lower foot traffic has already constrained demand. To remain competitive, Celsius Holdings has had to lean on aggressive promotional pricing, which exerts pressure on profit margins.
Speaking of margins, the company’s gross margin shrank by 440 basis points to 46% in the third quarter, primarily due to the full ramp-up of a PepsiCo incentive program aimed at expanding market share — an initiative that has come at the cost of profitability. Meanwhile, sales and marketing expenses remained elevated at 37.6% of revenues, reflecting Celsius Holdings’ continued commitment to brand-building efforts. However, the combination of high spending and margin pressures highlights concerns about short-term profitability, especially in the face of intensifying competition and market uncertainties.
Celsius Holdings: A Look at Analysts’ Predictions
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share in the current and next fiscal year has been revised downward by a penny each. This shift indicates growing caution among analysts and highlights potential hurdles in meeting profitability expectations.
CELH Estimates Trend Downward
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Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Can Growth Initiatives Spark a Turnaround for CELH?
While Celsius Holdings’ challenges are evident, the company’s growth initiatives could play a pivotal role in reversing its recent stock woes. The company has been doubling on innovation, branding, and marketing to sharpen its competitive edge. By regularly introducing new flavors and product variations, CELH is actively responding to shifting consumer preferences, positioning itself to regain traction in the highly competitive energy drink market.
A significant advantage for Celsius Holdings lies in its robust retail presence. The company has secured prominent shelf space in leading retail chains, convenience stores and online platforms, expanding its reach to a wide consumer base. Its diversified distribution strategy, including e-commerce and foodservice channels, plays a solid role in augmenting revenues and minimizing the impact of seasonal or channel-specific fluctuations.
In the third quarter of 2024, CELH saw impressive growth in key partnerships. Sales to Amazon AMZN climbed 21% to $27 million, while sales to Costco COST surged 15%, underscoring the brand’s strong appeal across multiple retail environments. Moving on, about 12.3% of the company’s total North America sales to PepsiCo in the quarter came from the foodservice sector, including solid performance across workplaces, restaurants, recreational locations, hotels and gaming establishments. This diversified channel strategy supports steady revenue growth, insulating Celsius Holdings from seasonal and channel-specific fluctuations. This diversified channel strategy drives steady revenue growth and helps shield Celsius Holdings from seasonal and channel-specific ups and downs.
Beyond North America, Celsius Holdings is making calculated moves to expand its global footprint. Strategic market entries into Australia, New Zealand and France, supported by partnerships with major retailers like Tesco and 7-Eleven, are enabling the company to tap into emerging health and wellness trends. The company’s expansion into the UK and other international markets reflects its commitment to diversifying revenue streams and reducing reliance on North America, offering new pathways for long-term growth.
The company’s strong brand positioning and loyal customer base provide a solid foundation for recovery and long-term success.
CELH Stock: Finding the Path Forward
Celsius Holdings faces a critical moment as it navigates the tension between its elevated valuation and recent stock underperformance. While the company’s growth story remains compelling, the sharp decline in its share price suggests weakened investor confidence. Moving forward, Celsius Holdings must deliver on its growth promises through product innovation, geographic expansion and strategic execution to justify its premium valuation and regain market favor. For now, maintaining positions in the stock appears prudent. Celsius Holdings currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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