Can MP Materials Deliver Another Year of Production Growth?
MP Materials MP is accelerating efforts to strengthen its position across the U.S. rare earth supply chain, with rising NdPr production, expanding heavy rare earth capabilities and growing downstream magnet manufacturing. The company’s recent operational milestones highlight its progress toward building a fully integrated, end-to-end rare earth platform in the United States.
In 2025, the company’s Mountain Pass operations delivered a record 2,599 metric tons (MT) of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), more than double the 1,294 MT produced in 2024. The increase reflected continued process optimization and production ramp-up efforts.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company produced a record 917 MT of NdPr, up 63% year over year. Production increased 41% year over year to 840 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 despite a scheduled semiannual maintenance outage at Mountain Pass. Management expects third-quarter 2026 NdPr production to have exceeded 1,000 metric tons as throughput and plant reliability improved.
MP remains on track to begin producing terbium and dysprosium later this year, with first samarium production targeted for 2028. The company recently entered into a multiyear agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a leading U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer.
MP Materials continues to expand its downstream manufacturing footprint as well. In December 2025, the company successfully produced its first neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets on a commercial scale at its Independence facility located in Fort Worth, TX.
The company has been delivering magnetic precursor products to General Motors Company GM under a supply agreement since the first quarter of 2025, generating revenues for its Magnetics segment. During the second quarter of 2026, MP Materials delivered magnets to General Motors for in-vehicle qualification testing and expects to begin commercial shipments in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by a steady production ramp.
As of June 30, 2026, MP had collected $150 million in required GM prepayments and delivered $104.5 million of precursor products. The remaining $45.5 million is expected to be delivered within a year. Once that is completed, MP expects to shift to sales of finished magnets instead of additional precursor sales to GM.
MP is expanding operations at its Independence facility and has begun construction of the 10X magnetics facility. Commissioning activities for scaled heavy rare earth separation are also expected to begin soon at Mountain Pass. 10X will significantly expand MP’s fully integrated U.S. rare-earth magnetics manufacturing platform, which already encompasses mining and refining, metallization and alloying, sintering, finished magnet production and closed-loop recycling. Once operational, the new campus is expected to contribute to the company’s total production capacity of approximately 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB rare-earth magnets per year, advancing the nation’s ability to produce these strategic components domestically.
MP Materials has also worked with U.S. and allied drone manufacturers to launch Project Swarm, an industrial coordination initiative designed to aggregate and standardize future magnet demand. It has already signed subscription agreements with several participants. The company’s partnership with Apple AAPL on magnet recycling, magnet production and joint development also continues to advance.
MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
MP Materials shares have fallen 34.4% in the past year, underperforming the industry’s 20.1% growth.
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MP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 11.94X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.65X.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2026 earnings stands at 5 cents per share against a loss of 24 cents in 2025. The 2027 earnings estimate is currently pegged at 81 cents per share, implying growth of 1,523%.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials for both 2026 and 2027 have moved down, as shown below.
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The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
