Anheuser-Busch InBev stock (NYSE: BUD) recently released its Q4 results, surpassing consensus estimates with earnings of $0.88 per share and sales of $14.8 billion, compared to expectations of $0.63 per share and $14.4 billion, respectively. Improved pricing trends were the primary driver of the company’s strong Q4 performance.
Following the announcement, BUD stock surged 7%. However, despite this positive reaction, BUD stock has underperformed the S&P 500 index since the beginning of 2024, with an 8% decline compared to the S&P 500’s 28% increase. This underperformance is largely attributed to falling volumes and weak consumer demand in China, which have impacted the company’s financial and stock performance over the past year. If you want an upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
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BUD Sales Growth Led by EMEA Region
Anheuser-Busch InBev’s revenue of $14.8 billion represents a 3.4% year-over-year organic growth despite a 1.9% decline in overall volumes. Regional performance varied: North America revenue increased by 1.7%, Middle Americas by 6.6%, South America by 3.2%, EMEA by 8.7%, while Asia Pacific decreased by 10.9%. The overall volume decline of 1.9% was primarily driven by Asia Pacific, which saw a 12.7% drop. The company continued to experience soft consumer demand in China, with a 19% decline in volumes.
Anheuser-Busch InBev’s EBITDA margin improved by 216 basis points year-over-year to 35.3% in Q4, largely due to strong margin expansion in the Middle Americas, South America, and EMEA regions. The combination of higher revenues and margin expansion resulted in a 7% increase in earnings per share, reaching $0.88 in Q4. Looking forward, BUD expects its EBITDA to grow between 4% and 8% in 2025.
Does BUD Stock Have Room For Growth?
BUD stock has risen 7% following the earnings release. But, the performance of BUD stock with respect to the index over the last four-year period has been quite volatile. Returns for the stock were -13% in 2021, 0% in 2022, 9% in 2023, and -21% in 2024.
In contrast, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, is less volatile. And it has comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 over the last four-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and ongoing trade wars, could BUD face a similar situation as it did in 2021, 2023, and 2024 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months — or will it see a strong jump? We estimate Anheuser-Busch InBev’s valuation to be $69 per share, reflecting around 18% upside from its current levels of $59. Our forecast is based on a 19x P/E multiple for BUD and projected adjusted earnings of $3.63 per share for the full year 2025. This multiple represents a slight premium to the stock’s four-year average P/E ratio of 18x. We believe this modest increase in the valuation multiple is warranted given the company’s rising sales and improving profitability.
While BUD stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how Anheuser-Busch InBev peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
| Returns | Feb 2025 MTD [1] |
Since start of 2024 [1] |
2017-25 Total [2] |
| BUD Return | 19% | -8% | -35% |
| S&P 500 Return | 1% | 28% | 173% |
| Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio | -7% | 15% | 677% |
[1] Returns as of 2/27/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
