Bank of America Corp. BAC disclosed its outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year 2025 on Wednesday at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference.
Brian Moynihan, chairman & CEO of Bank of America maintained an optimistic view for 2025 given the cooling down of inflation amid rate cuts and expected favorable regulatory changes in light of the Donald Trump-led administration.
BAC’s Outlook
Net Interest Income: The bank anticipates net interest income (NII) to rise sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $14.3 billion, driven by higher loans and lower deposit costs in a falling rate environment. This is in line with the company’s previous guidance.
Further, for 2025, Moynihan predicted NII to rise sequentially every quarter, given the anticipated interest rate cuts. Likewise, net interest margin is expected to rise sequentially in each quarter of 2025, driven by higher yields as rates come down.
Similarly, at the same conference, Citigroup, Inc.’s C chief financial officer, Mark Mason mentioned that NII excluding markets is expected to be slightly down year over year for 2024 and flat sequentially for the fourth quarter of 2024.
Further, JPMorgan’s JPM CEO of the Consumer and Community Banking segment, Marianne Lake noted that 2025 NII is likely to be $2 billion, higher than previous estimation, driven by a higher interest rate outlook.
Fee Income: Moynihan mentioned wealth management fees are expected to rise 20% on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2024 while investment banking (IB) fees are anticipated to be up 25% on a year-over-year basis.
Trading fees are anticipated to witness a record fourth quarter and will likely be up mid-to-high single digits from the prior-year quarter.
Similarly, Citigroup anticipated IB fees to be up 20-30% on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2024 while JPM expects the figure to jump 45% on a year-over-year basis.
Expenses: BAC anticipates core expenses to remain stable in the fourth quarter of 2024 while market-related expenses have increased slightly. The company earlier stated that it expects to spend nearly $4 billion on technology initiatives in 2024 and total non-interest expenses to remain stable at $16.5 billion sequentially for the fourth quarter of 2024.
For 2025, Bank of America anticipates non-interest expenses to rise relative to revenue growth and targets expenses to increase at half the inflationary rate. The company expects operating leverage to kick in gradually in 2025.
Loans & Deposits: Moynihan expects loan growth to be roughly 4% or higher in 2024, driven by solid pipelines in commercial loans. Mortgage loans are unlikely to grow significantly.
Further, deposits are expected to be nearly $30 billion or up by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating a sequential growth.
Previously, BAC stated a modest loan and deposit growth in 2024.
Credit Costs: Bank of America expects credit costs to be flattish in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the prior-year quarter.
BAC’s Zacks Rank & Price Performance
Year to date, shares of BCA have gained 36.7% compared with the industry's growth of 42%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Currently, BAC carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Bank of America Corporation (BAC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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