Montana-based Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), headquartered in Montana, is a leading data analytics and decision management firm renowned for its widely used FICO Score. Established in 1956, the company, with a market capitalization of $44.4 billion, specializes in advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and cloud-based software solutions, enabling businesses to make data-driven decisions.
This tech stock has been on fire, surging 45.2% over the past year, crushing the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 17.5% return. But 2025 has thrown a curveball, with shares slipping 6.1% year-to-date, trailing the SPX’s modest 1.3% rise.
Even so, its dominance remains clear, handily outpacing the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLK) 12.4% rally over the past year. However, the ETF’s marginal fall this year outpaces the stock’s loss in 2025.
On Feb. 4, Fair Isaac reported its fiscal Q1 earnings, and despite falling short of expectations, its stock still managed to climb by 2.1% in the following session. Adjusted EPS came in at $5.79, missing the $6.21 consensus, while revenue of $440 million trailed the anticipated $454.7 million.
Yet, beneath the headline misses, FICO’s core business was robust. The Scores segment stole the show, with revenue surging 23% to $236 million, supercharged by a staggering 110% spike in mortgage origination revenues. Business-to-business (B2B) revenue soared 30%, while Business-to-Consumer (B2C) saw a steady 3% gain, largely through indirect channels. Meanwhile, the Software segment delivered an 8% revenue boost to $204 million, powered by the strength of its SaaS offerings and robust license sales.
Analysts see a blockbuster year ahead for FICO, projecting a 35.8% surge in EPS to $24.15 by September 2025. But its earnings track record has been grim, with just one beat in the last four quarters and three painful misses.
Among the 14 analysts covering the stock, the consensus view is a “Moderate Buy,” which is based on seven “Strong Buy,” two “Moderate Buy,” and five “Hold” ratings.
On Feb. 26, RBC Capital Markets upgraded Fair Isaac Corporation from “Sector-Perform” to “Outperform,” raising its price target to $2,170 from $2,040. The upgrade follows a recent stock sell-off driven by concerns over potential GSE privatization, a new FHFA director, and higher interest rates impacting mortgage volumes and PaaS ARR growth.
FICO’s average analyst price target of $2,149.43 represents a premium of 14.9% from the current market prices. The Street-high price target of $2,600 implies an upside potential of 39%.
On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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