Riot Platforms, Inc. RIOT has seen its stock surge 45% in the past three months but decline 10% in the past month, indicating that the stock has entered a correction phase.
This decline aligns with the performance of other cryptocurrency-centric stocks like Cipher Mining CIFR, which has declined 19% and Marathon Digital MARA, which has dropped 27% over the same period.
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Given the recent weakness in RIOT shares, investors may be tempted to buy the stock. But is this the right time to buy RIOT? Let’s find out.
Trump's Win Fuels Bitcoin and RIOT Stock
Bitcoin's value touched unprecedented levels, surpassing $100,000 for the first time. This surge is largely attributed to expectations of favorable cryptocurrency policies under the incoming Trump administration. As a Bitcoin mining company, Riot Platforms directly benefits from higher Bitcoin prices, which can lead to increased revenues and profitability.
President-elect Trump intends to integrate cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial markets, including plans to establish a national Bitcoin reserve. Such policies are expected to create a more supportive regulatory environment for cryptocurrency-related businesses, potentially reducing operational uncertainties for companies like Riot Platforms.
The post-election period has seen a rise in institutional investments in cryptocurrencies, with major financial entities like BlackRock and Fidelity launching Bitcoin-related financial products. This growing institutional interest enhances the legitimacy and stability of the cryptocurrency market, indirectly benefiting mining companies by fostering a more robust market environment.
Bitcoin Halving and Volatility Challenge RIOT
One of the primary factors hurting RIOT is the Bitcoin halving event, which has significantly increased operational challenges for miners. The halving means that each ASIC miner needs to work double as hard to mine the same amount of Bitcoin, but the anticipated price increase for Bitcoin has not occurred to balance this increased difficulty. Riot's Bitcoin production decreased 10% year over year in November 2024, highlighting the operational inefficiencies and increased challenges the company faces due to the halving.
RIOT exhibits a beta of 4.14, indicating significant volatility compared to the broader market. This heightened volatility means the stock is susceptible to rapid and substantial price fluctuations, which can lead to swift erosion of investment gains.
RIOT Earnings Estimates Moving South
Four estimates for 2024 moved south over the past 60 days versus no northward revisions.
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Over the same period, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line in 2024 has declined from earnings of 7 cents to a loss of 35 cents. This indicates a lack of confidence among analysts in the company's ability to improve its financial performance soon.
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Time to Hold, Not Buy, RIOT Stock
RIOT has encountered considerable operational and financial difficulties following the Bitcoin halving. The company's financial outlook appears grim, with downward revisions in earnings estimates signaling the potential for continued decline. Considering the present market conditions, investors may want to proceed cautiously before purchasing RIOT shares.
Given the likelihood of further correction in RIOT's stock, adopting a wait-and-see approach until a more advantageous entry point emerges could be a wise strategy.
RIOT currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpMarathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
