The holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week tends to be a bullish feast for stock investors, even with low volumes due to increased consumer spending, lower dinner costs and upbeat traveling. Per researchers, the S&P 500 Index has gained 0.6% on average during the week over the past 50 years, with 70% of the returns coming in positive (read: What Lies Ahead for S&P 500 ETFs in 2025?).
The currentstock market trendsalso support the bullish Thanksgiving week view. The excitement over President-elect Trump’s policies and the Fed rate-cutting cycle are boosting the stock market.
Investors seeking to cash in on big gains could consider ETFs from the areas likely to benefit from the Thanksgiving week. These are Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF PSCD, SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT, AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF EATZ, U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS and Defiance Hotel, Airline, and Cruise ETF CRUZ.
Strong Thanksgiving Spending
Consumer spending is expected to reach $125 billion this Thanksgiving weekend, down from $129 million in the last-year period, per the latest International Council of Shopping Centers' survey. Millennials and Gen X shoppers are expected to lead spending, with averages of $628 and $629, respectively. Baby boomers are expected to spend an average of $444.
About 66% of those who plan to shop over the Thanksgiving weekend will use deals and discounts to stock up on necessary items unrelated to holiday shopping. Still, 84% plan to spend on holiday gifts for others. This will be followed by spending on dining (76%), other holiday-related items (73%), entertainment and activities (56%), and personal services (56%).
According to the National Retail Federation, an estimated 183.4 million people plan to shop in stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year. This increased from the record of 182 million in 2023. Black Friday has been the most popular day to shop, with 72% planning to head out to stores or shop online, followed by 39% on Cyber Monday.
Americans are bracing for a cheaper Thanksgiving dinner this year due to lower turkey prices. The average cost of serving 10 people for Thanksgiving is expected to be $58.08 ($5.81 per head), down 5% year over year. This will likely be the lowest level since 2021, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual Thanksgiving dinner cost survey.
Upbeat Travel
Travel service provider American Automobile Association (AAA) expects 2024 to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel season in the United States, making records. About 79.9 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving. This is up from nearly 80 million travelers or an increase of 1.7 million from last year. Of them, 71.74 million will go on road trips, 5.84 million will fly and the remaining 2.28 million will travel by train, bus or cruise.
Airline companies also expect record travel demand this Thanksgiving week. The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen 18.3 million airline passengers from Nov. 26 to Dec. 2, suggesting a 6% growth from the last year.
ETFs to Binge On
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD)
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF targets the small-cap segment of the broad consumer discretionary space by tracking the S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Consumer Discretionary Index. It holds 85 securities in its basket, with specialty retail taking the largest share at 26.8%, whereas household durables, and hotels, restaurants and leisure account for double-digit exposure each.
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF has attracted $26.8 million in AUM and charges 29 bps in annual fees. It trades in an average daily volume of about 1,000 shares and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook.
SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)
SPDR S&P Retail ETF tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, which provides exposure across large, mid and small-cap stocks. It holds 78 well-diversified stocks in its basket, with key holdings in automotive retail, specialty retail and apparel retail.
SPDR S&P Retail ETF is the largest and most popular one in the retail space, with an AUM of $460.9 million and an average trading volume of 4 million shares. It charges 35 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook (read: Will Trump's Tariffs Fuel Inflation? ETFs in Focus).
AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ)
AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF is an actively managed and the only ETF investing exclusively in the restaurant and food service industry, including restaurants, bars, pubs, fast food, take-out facilities and food catering services. AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF holds 23 securities in its basket with a modest concentration on the top firms.
AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF gathered $3.3 million in its asset base. EATZ charges 1.01% as annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 2,000 shares.
U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS)
U.S. Global Jets ETF provides exposure to the global airline industry, including airline operators and manufacturers from all over the world, by tracking the U.S. Global Jets Index. The product holds 56 securities and charges 60 bps in annual fees.
U.S. Global Jets ETF has gathered $1.1 billion in its asset base and sees a heavy trading volume of nearly 3 million shares a day. JETS has a Zacks ETF Rank # 3, with a High risk outlook (read: 5 Best-Performing Sector ETFs Midway in Q4).
Defiance Hotel, Airline, and Cruise ETF (CRUZ)
Defiance Hotel, Airline, and Cruise ETF tracks the BlueStar Global Hotels, Airlines, and Cruises Index, which measures the performance of globally listed companies primarily engaged in the passenger airline, hotel and cruise industries. Holding 55 stocks in its basket, American firms make up 46.5% of the portfolio, whereas Liberia, the U.K. and Panama round off the next three with single-digit exposure each.
Defiance Hotel, Airline, and Cruise ETF has gathered $25 million in its asset base and charges 55 bps in annual fees. Volume is lower as it exchanges around 9,000 shares a day on average. CRUZ has a Zacks ETF Rank #3.
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Get it free >>SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT): ETF Research Reports
U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): ETF Research Reports
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD): ETF Research Reports
AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ): ETF Research Reports
Defiance Hotel, Airline, and Cruise ETF (CRUZ): ETF Research Reports
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