The fourth-quarter 2024 earnings cycle is here, with quite a few healthcare companies having reported results. Early reports indicate several key growth drivers at play, including increased patient volumes, utilization, admissions, patient days and rate hikes, as well as growing demand for commercial healthcare plans and technology-enabled offerings. However, rising medical costs due to increased utilization and occupancy have partly offset the positives.
Based on our exclusive research and unique market insight, we present four stocks — Amgen Inc. AMGN, Cencora, Inc. COR, Humana Inc. HUM and Ardent Health Partners, Inc. ARDT — which are set to beat earnings estimates this earnings season.
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Q4 Expectations
Before delving into the specifics of what could have impacted fourth-quarter performance, let's examine the sector forecasts.
The healthcare space is a part of the broader Zacks Medical sector (one of the 16 broad Zacks sectors within the Zacks Industry). According to the latest Earnings Trends report dated Jan. 29, the medical sector is projected to experience 12.5% growth in earnings for the fourth quarter, while revenues are anticipated to rise by 8.6%.
Factors at Play for Healthcare Stocks in Q4
The healthcare sector is vast and complex, covering hospitals, medical services, nursing homes, health insurance, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and outpatient and home healthcare. A growing aging population and rising demand for healthcare products and services continue to drive sales for industry players.
However, investments in technology and innovation have likely pressured profit margins in the short term. Higher salaries and benefits have also increased overall costs for healthcare companies. Additionally, some HMO companies are expected to have seen a decline in Medicaid and Medicare memberships due to redeterminations.
The patient volumes likely rose in the fourth quarter, driven by more visits and surgeries. Increased revenue per admission should have further boosted top-line growth. The continued resumption of elective procedures, particularly among seniors, also contributed to higher patient volumes. However, this surge in utilization may have led to higher medical costs, potentially squeezing profit margins.
To offset rising medical cost trends, some companies likely implemented premium rate hikes, providing some financial relief. Health insurers may have also benefited from new product offerings, technological advancements, premium growth and increased investment income. Meanwhile, the demand for affordable healthcare plans may have driven higher membership in the commercial market.
On the positive side, technological innovations continue to reshape the healthcare industry. AI and automation are improving clinical workflows, enhancing diagnostics and reducing unnecessary costs. These advancements have likely helped hospitals optimize services, shorten patient wait times, enhance the overall patient experienceand lower treatment expenses.
How to Identify Potential Outperformers?
Identifying healthcare stocks with the potential for an earnings beat can be challenging amid the crowded investment landscape. However, our proprietary methodology simplifies this task, offering insights into potential outperformers. With our unique research and deep market analysis, we've identified the healthcare stocks using the Zacks Stock Screener.
These stocks have the ideal combination of two ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — to surpass expectations. Our research shows that for stocks with this combination, the chances of an earnings beat are as high as 70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Potential Outperformers
One might start with Cencora, which is one of the major pharmaceutical services companies. Headquartered in Conshohocken, PA, the company’s December-quarter earnings are expected to have benefited from increased sales of GLP-1 drugs and specialty products and higher operating income from the global specialty logistics business. Higher days payable and growth in the U.S. Healthcare Solutions business are likely to have positioned the company for an earnings beat this time around.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cencora’s fiscal first-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.50 per share, which remained stable over the past week. It beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, with an average of 7%. COR has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Cencora, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Cencora, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cencora, Inc. Quote
You may also watch Thousand Oaks, CA-based Amgen, one of the biggest biotech companies in the world, which has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Its fourth-quarter earnings are likely to have gained from growing product sales in Prolia, Repatha, Kyprolis, Xgeva, Vectibix and others. Growth in rare disease drugs, mostly Horizon’s products, will likely boost its results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amgen’s fourth-quarter earnings indicates a 6.4% improvement from a year ago. The estimate remained stable over the past week. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 4.1%.
Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote
Louisville, KY-based Humana also deserves mention. It is a healthcare plan provider witnessing strong premium growth, improving cost management and growing memberships. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The consensus mark for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $28.82 billion.
An expanding value-based home care model is expected to benefit HUM’s CenterWell unit. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s fourth-quarter earnings remained stable over the past week with no revisions in estimates. It beat earnings estimates thrice in the past four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 0.2%.
Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Humana Inc. price-eps-surprise | Humana Inc. Quote
Finally, we have Brentwood, TN-based Ardent Health, which provides healthcare services through a network of hospitals and clinics. Rising adjusted admissions, higher revenue per admission and patient days are likely to have positioned ARDT for better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ardent Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported is pegged at 45 cents per share, which remained stable over the past week. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.49 billion. ARDT has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank #3. It beat earnings estimates once and missed one time in the past two quarters.
Ardent Health Partners, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Ardent Health Partners, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ardent Health Partners, Inc. Quote
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Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpAmgen Inc. (AMGN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Humana Inc. (HUM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Cencora, Inc. (COR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Ardent Health Partners, Inc. (ARDT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
