In the equity market, investments always need to be prudently hedged in order to overcome uncertainties and limit losses related to external shocks. A question that arises often is whether one should resort to a value strategy that seeks discounted stocks or opt for growth investing in times of extreme market instability.
The investing track of the Oracle of Omaha over the past few decades and his gradual shift from being a pure-play value investor to a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) investor might give us all the answers.
Several stocks, which have surged significantly in the recent past, show an overwhelming success of this hybrid investing strategy over pure-play value and growth investments. Here, we will discuss the success of four such stocks. These are The Gap Inc. GAP, LATAM Airlines Group LTM, Qifu Technology, Inc. QFIN and Urban Outfitters URBN.
More on GARP
The GARP theory enables strategic mingling of growth and value-investing principles, which gives us a hybrid strategy by utilizing the best features of both. What GARPers look for is whether or not the stocks are somewhat undervalued and have solid sustainable growth potential (Investopedia).
PEG Ratio and GARP
GARP investing gives priority to one of the popular value metrics — the price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio. Although it is categorized under value investing, this strategy follows the principles of both growth and value investing.
The PEG ratio is defined as: (Price/ Earnings)/Earnings Growth Rate
It relates stocks’ P/E ratio with their future earnings growth rates.
While P/E alone gives an idea of stocks that are trading at a discount, PEG, while adding the growth element to it, helps identify stocks with solid future potential.
A lower PEG ratio, preferably less than 1, is always better for GARP investors.
Say for example, if a stock's P/E ratio is 10 and the expected long-term growth rate is 15%, the company's PEG will come down to 0.66, a ratio indicating both undervaluation and future growth potential.
Unfortunately, this ratio is often neglected due to investors' limitations to calculate the future earnings growth rate of a stock.
There are some drawbacks to using the PEG ratio though. It does not consider the very common situation of changing growth rates, such as the forecast of the first three years at a very high growth rate, followed by a sustainable but lower growth rate over the long term.
Hence, PEG-based investing can be even more rewarding if some other relevant parameters are also taken into consideration.
Here are the screening criteria for a winning strategy:
PEG Ratio less than X Industry Median
P/E Ratio (using F1) less than X Industry Median (For more accurate valuation purpose)
Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) (Whether good market conditions or bad, stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 have a proven history of success.)
Market Capitalization greater than $1 Billion (This helps us to focus on companies that have strong liquidity.)
Average 20 Day Volume greater than 50,000: A substantial trading volume ensures that the stock is easily tradable.
Percentage Change F1 Earnings Estimate Revisions (4 Weeks) greater than 5%: Upward estimate revisions add to the optimism, suggesting further bullishness.
Value Score of less than or equal to B: Our research shows that stocks with a Style Score of A or B, when combined with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 (Hold), offer the best upside potential.
Our Picks
Here are four out of the nine stocks that qualified the screening:
Gap: With more than 3,500 stores worldwide, The Gap, Inc. is a premier international specialty retailer offering a diverse range of clothing, accessories, and personal care products. It offers products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix and Hill City brands.
The stock can be an impressive value investment pick with its Zacks Rank #1 and a Value Score of A. Apart from a discounted PEG and P/E, the stock also has an impressive long-term expected earnings growth rate of 11.1%.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
LATAM: Together with its subsidiaries, the company provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, other Latin American countries, the Caribbean, North America, Europe and Oceania. It offers other services, such as ground handling, courier, logistics and maintenance.
The stock can also be an impressive value investment pick with its Zacks Rank #1 and a Value Score of A. Apart from a discounted PEG and P/E, the stock also has a solid long-term expected growth rate of 14.2%.
Qifu: It is a leading Credit-Tech platform in China that provides a comprehensive suite of technology services to assist financial institutions and consumers and SMEs in the loan lifecycle, ranging from borrower acquisition, preliminary credit assessment, fund matching and post-facilitation services.
Apart from a discounted PEG and P/E, the stock has a Value Score of A and holds a Zacks Rank #1. The stock also has a 20.9% earnings growth rate for the next five years.
Urban Outfitters: Based in Philadelphia, PA, Urban Outfitters is a lifestyle specialty retailer that offers fashion apparel and accessories, footwear, home décor and gifts products. The company’s merchandises are generally sold directly to consumers through stores, catalogs, call centers and e-commerce platforms. The company has operations in the United States, Canada and Europe.
The stock can be an impressive value investment pick with its Zacks Rank #1 and a Value Score of A. Apart from a discounted PEG and P/E, the stock also has an impressive long-term expected earnings growth rate of 12.3%.
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Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material.
Disclosure: Performance information for Zacks’ portfolios and strategies are available at: https://www.zacks.com/performance.
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Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The Gap, Inc. (GAP) : Free Stock Analysis Report
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
