The global natural gas market is entering the 2024–25 winter season under unique circumstances that could lead to a tighter supply-demand balance. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the past two winters were notably mild, leading to record-high storage levels and relatively low prices.
However, this year presents a more uncertain scenario. Current forward prices at major hubs, including Europe’s Title Transfer Facility and Asia’s JKM benchmark, indicate only slight price increases compared to last year. However, colder-than-expected weather, geopolitical disruptions and operational constraints could significantly alter the market landscape, causing natural gas prices to spike.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has predicted a colder winter in parts of Europe due to a potential transition from El Nino to La Nina, which could intensify heating demand. Similarly, Asia’s reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, particularly in China, may lead to increased competition for spot cargoes, driving up prices in both regions. With limited new LNG export capacities coming online, primarily in the United States, the market may struggle to meet elevated demand.
Geopolitical and Operational Risks Loom Large
The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine natural gas transit contract at the end of December 2024 presents another significant risk to European gas supplies. Russian pipeline exports, which have already dwindled due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions, may decline further, forcing Europe to rely heavily on LNG imports. Operational delays or unplanned outages at key LNG facilities, particularly in the United States, could further constrain supply.
In addition, natural gas storage levels, though high in Europe, may not suffice if colder-than-normal temperatures persist through the winter. In Asia, China’s aggressive LNG stockpiling ahead of winter indicates preparedness for potential demand surges but tightens global availability. A severe winter could see both Europe and Asia competing fiercely for limited LNG cargoes, exacerbating price volatility.
3 Stocks Poised to Benefit
We have identified three U.S. energy companies that stand to gain significantly from these dynamics, particularly those involved in LNG production, transportation and infrastructure. These are Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG, Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM and Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI, each carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
As one of the largest U.S. LNG exporters, Cheniere is well-positioned to capitalize on rising global LNG demand. The company’s extensive export facilities, including Corpus Christi LNG, which recently added new capacity, will allow it to supply more LNG to high-demand regions like Europe and Asia. Higher spot and forward prices at global benchmarks will likely boost Cheniere's revenues and margins directly.
LNG currently has a market capitalization of around $50.3 billion, with its shares climbing 27.8% over the past year.
ExxonMobil’s growing LNG portfolio, including projects in Papua New Guinea and Qatar, places it in a strong position to supply international markets during tight conditions. Additionally, ExxonMobil's involvement in the U.S. Gulf Coast LNG sector ensures it can benefit from increased exports driven by global demand and elevated prices.
XOM's current market capitalization is approximately $518.5 billion, and its shares have risen 15.1% over the past year.
Kinder Morgan’s vast pipeline network and LNG transport infrastructure make it a critical player in ensuring domestic and international supply. If U.S. Henry Hub prices rise due to heightened domestic demand or storage drawdowns, Kinder Morgan could see increased revenues from both pipeline transportation and export-oriented LNG operations.
KMI has a current market capitalization of about $62.8 billion, with its shares surging 54.2% over the past year.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
