Credit: Shutterstock photoI hear a lot about bubbles. I see potential bubbles in play, but let's look at the data.
A final kick at this can - comparing the USA situation with other OECD members. It is somewhat dangerous to compare different economies because of gearing. But if one looks at this using the other data presented, it does continue to paint the same theme that a housing bubble does not currently exist in the USA.
Initial unemployment claims declined from 354,000 (reported last week) to 346,000 this week. Historically, claims exceeding 400,000 per week usually occur when employment gains are less than the workforce growth, resulting in an increasing unemployment rate.
The real gauge – the 4 week moving average – worsened from 347,250 (reported last week) to 352,500. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)
Bankruptcies this Week: Digerati Technologies, Triad Guaranty, Privately-held iGPS Company,
Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were:
- Rail movements are beginning to show a modest growth trend.
All other data released this week either does not have enough historical correlation to the economy to be considered intuitive, or is simply a coincident indicator to the economy.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
