Credit: Source: Morningstar.At the risk of oversimplifying complex economics with just one number, Chipotle earns 17.1% annually on its investments, which primarily take the form of new restaurants. Those sorts of investing returns are rare.
When looking at the company's growth from this perspective, the $575 million Chipotle spent in the past year investing in restaurant growth is a no-brainer. Rapid restaurant growth is one factor why investor expectations are so high, and by association, why shares trade at nose-bleed price-to-earnings levels.
Underlying the company's high return on invested capital are its restaurant-level operating margins. Chipotle restaurants have some of the highest operating margins of any fast-food restaurant at 27.5%in the last quarter. And that's a 1.6 percentage point increase over the same quarter in 2014. For comparison, McDonald's company-owned restaurants generated 14.3% restaurant-level margins in the past quarter.
Why same restaurant sales don't matter... much
Quarter after quarter, a consistent narrative is reported in Chipotle headlines by Wall Street and the financial media. Same-restaurant sales receive the spotlight. They are the benchmark of investor expectations and what Wall Street targets.
But focusing solely on same-restaurant sales biases short-term thinking. I'm not saying same-restaurant sales are completely irrelevant, but it's not what long-term investors should hone in on.
To be fair, an increase in same-restaurant sales moves the revenue needle more in the short term than an increase in revenue from new restaurants. Not meeting near-term expectations will drive shares down.
That being said, a sustained and dramatic decline in both same-restaurant sales and margins would make investing in restaurant unit growth a poor choice (read: the spread earned on investments narrows). Such a perfect storm is unlikely to occur, though, for a very simple reason: the company has led a charge in the restaurant market that has radically changed consumer tastes toward healthier food, and consumers love its products. That fervor doesn't just dry up like the Mojave. Accordingly, same-restaurant sales are unlikely to downright nosedive over sustained periods.
Ask yourself the following
For investors looking to buy or sell shares, I suggest asking yourself two questions before taking action. First, is your investing mentality biased toward the long term? Second, do you believe Chipotle's restaurant growth will persist?
If the answer to both those questions is yes, then keying in on return on capital and restaurant-level operating margins is important and holding some shares in your portfolio is a good choice. But be patient. Headlines focusing on the wrong metrics will make it a bumpy ride.
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The article The 2 (Different) Ways Investors Should Look at Chipotle Mexican Grill originally appeared on Fool.com.
Nathan Hamilton owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days . We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
