Credit: Shutterstock photoThere is little evidence that the USA is in recession - except in the goods producing sectors and business sales which are marginally in a decline. Even in the contracting goods producing sectors, the recession evidence is far from overwhelming.
What triggered this post is continued unwavering assertions by some that the USA is NOT in a recession. Understanding the data, historical movements, and data gathering / methodologies - the wise pundit would not assert anything with conviction.
Take manufacturing's historical movements, manufacturing can be growing, flat or declining going into a recession. Simply one cannot use goods production as a single litmus test of a recession.
The question I pose is what dynamic exists to strengthen the economy? Trends continue until they do not. Plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
Other Economic News this Week:
The Econintersect Economic Index for February 2016 declined again, and is barely positive - and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic index remains in a long term decline since late 2014.
Current ECRI WLI Growth Index
The market (from Bloomberg) was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 274 K to 290 K (consensus 280,000) vs the 285,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 282,750 (reported last week as 283,000) to 284,750. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line), 2015 (violet line)
Bankruptcies this Week: SFX Entertainment, Horsehead Holding, Wave Systems (Chapter 7), Hancock Fabrics, Privately-held Ryckman Creek Resources, Osage
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
