Credit: Shutterstock photoThe latest results from our ongoing Brexit Poll: What Do Traders Expect from the EU were quite revealing. The data shows a clear divergence between what those outside and those inside the UK expect from the of the June 23 referendum. Brexit is a term being used for whether the UK should stay or exit the European Union. The objective of this poll is to find out what traders inside and outside the UK expect the result to be and to use this as a way of measuring market sentiment.
GBPUSD, which fell from a high just above 1.44 on February 19, when UK PM Cameron gained enough concessions from the EU summit to call for the Brexit referendum, fell to a 7 year low at 1.3836 on February 29 before recovering to end last week above 1.42. By contrast, UK stocks have shown less concern as they seemed to weather the initial storm better than sterling. However, looking at our latest polls, perhaps both should be paying closer attention to the Brexit risk although there is a long way to go before June 23 and sentiment can swing over that period. What is interesting to note is that the responses from those in the UK did not seem tio be impacted by the rebound in GBPUSD over the past week.
Latest Poll Results
As the data below indicates, UK respondents polled over the last week overwhelmingly expected the vote to be for leaving the EU while those outside the UK continued to express the opposite sentiment. 93% of those from the UK who responded over the past week expected the vote to be in favor of Brexit while 70% of respondents outside the UK expected Brexit to be rejected. 75% of the respondents over the past week were from the UK.
Overall:
Brexit = leaving the EU: 58% vs. 38% in the prior week
No Brexit = staying in the EU: 42% vs 62% in the prior week
UK respondents:
Brexit = leaving the EU: 83% vs. 58% in the prior week
No Brexit = staying in the EU: 17% vs 42% in the prior week
Non UK respondents:
Brexit = leaving the EU: 26% vs. 25% in the prior week
No Brexit = staying in the EU: 74% vs 75% in the prior week
Total respondents:
UK: 55% vs. 33 % in the prior week
Non UK: 45% vs. 67% in the prior week
To sum up, there appears to be a clear divergence of expectations for those outside and inside the UK. We will be monitoring it closely to see if this becomes a trend. Stay tuned.
Submit your response
As noted, this is an ongoing poll and for those who have not taken part in it, please click on the link below to submit your response.
Click to participate in our Brexit Poll
Jay Meisler, founder
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
