Credit: Shutterstock photoFear can be a powerful ally and that seems to be what the UK government’s strategy is currently focused on as the Brexit campaign has officially begun. This has not impacted our tracking poll, which asks the question, Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU?, Our poll continues to show a strong expectation for a Brexit result while public polls have swung the other way (see results below). .
However, feedback from those participating in our poll have turned mixed with the government’s fear campaign causing some to waver despite strong convictions for Brexit.
The Fear Factor
As one participant said:
I must admit, I agree with the people who have written about expecting us to stay in, going on the way the government has conducted itself so far…the Fear campaign seems to have no limit to the depths and lies they will plunge to in order to scare people into remaining in the EU…the scaremongering that is going on now and how much the country will be affected is incredible. I think a lot of people's minds will be made up depending on what events unfold in Europe in the next 2 months, more so regarding the migrant crisis, the EU's response and any possible terror attacks.
The Scare Factor
As others noted:
I’m a keen Brexit but when the Chancellor says peoples mortgages will go up this is a very deliberate attempt and a worry for me that people will be voting purely for being scared rather than having a clue of the real options, I also feel this will one very close race as the fear will push many to say yes, and not realise the longer term consequences
After today's scare stories from the government I fear that the in campaign will win because the don't knows will vote in because of the fear of what if it's true. I think this is now the government’s agenda to frighten don’t know into an in vote
I concur that the “fear campaign” is taking effect and the natural Brexit voting class, though not individual Brexit voters, is the least well-equipped to discern the arguments. The majority of the British people seem to want to leave the EU and the Remain Campaign’s strategy is clearly to instill fear to the extent that people are too numb to make the leap….I too will be voting leave but I also believe that the country as a whole will vote remain. The government will use scare tactics and play the age and socio-economic cards to make us think that we who intend to vote leave are too old, too poor or just downright too uneducated to grasp the full facts, this just plays into our ‘snobby psyche’ and makes those who really can’t be bothered to think about it jump onto the remain bandwagon. Everyone I speak to intends to vote leave but this isn’t getting into the press, we are constantly told the race is neck and neck, my day to day life doesn’t bear this out
Will the Fear Campaign Backfire?
Regarding the campaign of fear being mounted by the government and Remain campaigners, I think this is likely to backfire as the forecasts are becoming increasingly extreme and once they start becoming ridiculous, they lose credibility.
When asked whether there would be a backlash against the fear campaign, another respondent said: I think yes! To me it is clear that the Government is becoming desperate for what reason I don't know. ..
No Credibility?
I would really like to know what your Poll participants think of the UK Government’s latest 200 page document suggesting households will lose £4,300 annually in the event of Brexit . My view on this is that it is difficult to understand how a Chancellor/Treasury, can forecast 14 years hence with any real accuracy when you consider Mr. Osbourne had to revise his latest Budget the same week it was delivered. What say you?..
Another one questions the Chancellor’s credibility:
Not interested in what Mr. Osborne says as he can't even get it right for 6 months without altering his plans. How he can tell us where we will be in 2030 is a mystery to me. The Government does like to scare the public, I have noticed that and don't like it.
And finally;
I am in favor of Brexit. The media is to a large extent managing the "Remain" to the advantage of Cameron. It’s about time the Brexit started to get their message out. If they leave it any longer we will be disadvantaged
Click to participate in our Brexit Poll
Brexit Poll Results:
Brexit = vote to leave the EU
No Brexit = vote to stay in the EU
Overall Results: Poll Expectations for a Brexit outcome remain very high
Past Week: UK respondents continue to show a strong expectation for Brexit
Past week: Non-UK expectations for Brexit remains elevated but with a smaller sample
Breakdown of UK vs Non-UK Respondents in our poll
While our tracking poll continues to show a strong expectation for a Brexit outcome, this is not currently being confirmed by public polls and sterling. As I have been noting, one reason for the disparity may be the passion being shown by those expressing their opinions in favor of Brexit, which have dominated our poll.
As I have been also noting, the value of sterling is being seen as a better sentiment indicator for the Brexit referendum than either gilts or equities. In this regard, sterling put in a good showing this week, both vs. the dollar and some other currencies, such as the EUR. This seemed to coincide with public polls showing a swing towards no Brexit. Note, the official campaign has just begun and there are still two months until the vote. It remains to be seen whether the fear factor can maintain the upper hand that it seems to have gotten at the current time.
Click to participate in our Brexit Poll
Jay Meisler, founder
Global Traders Association
jay@tradersadvocate.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
