Credit: Shutterstock photoIn my many years trading financial markets I have heard more than my share of conspiracy theories. Most of the time they turn out to be dead ends. However, every once in a while there is some validity to a conspiracy theory. I am not saying this conspiracy theory is one of those but it is one that is worth your consideration.
We have been conducting a tracking poll for nearly three months asking for expectations for the June 23 EU referendum. As I have noted, we do not have a stake in the referendum or a bias and only report the results in our poll, which have been heavily in favor of Brexit (see latest Brexit poll results). What has been most glaring is the disparity between our poll and other online polls vs. public polls and bookmaker odds.
As part of our poll we ask for feedback from those who have participated. We have gotten hundreds of emails and one common concern has been that the polls/vote will be manipulated, rigged, or fixed. We have generally taken such comments with a grain of salt. However, the current trend in bookmaker odds has given a conspiracy theorist fuel for thought and here is one presented to us.
The Conspiracy Theory
From what we gather, the roots of the conspiracy theory can be found in an article published last week that indicated 63% of the bets placed with the UK bookmaker William Hill were for Leave but 72% of the money waged was on Remain. It also showed the odds in favor of Remain had fallen to 3:10. The combination of large bets on Remain vs. more bets on Leave and the low odds aroused some suspicions. The odds have since fallen further with some bookmakers quoting 1:6. In other words, you would have to wager £6 to win £1. This was compared to betting heavily on a sporting event with extremely low odds more than five weeks in advance. Money pouring in to bet on Remain so far ahead of the referendum at such low odds appeared to give rise to the conspiracy theory.
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The Conspiracy?
The stakes in the EU referendum are very high. There are many very powerful people/institutions who have a lot to lose from Brexit because it could start an unwinding of the EU. This could make it tempting to look for ways to influence the outcome outside of normal channels. The question is how?
As described to us, if someone or some entity had resources and wanted to manipulate the results, one way to do so would be to make large bets that pushed bookmaker odds in its favor. This, in turn, could influence referendum sentiment via polls and ultimately the election. If successful, not only could it sway the outcome but it could recoup its investment plus a profit from the bets.
In this conspiracy theory, bookmakers are not being accused of any wrongdoing nor does there appear to be any information that betting is being manipulated. However, such a conspiracy, if it existed, would offer the path of least resistance as those backing Remain have the resources to influence the betting pool.
Those writing off the conspiracy theory might say betting odds reflect the polls while the conspiracy theorist might ask whether the odds are being manipulated to influence the polls. In any case, this is not to say it is probable or even possible. All a conspiracy theorist should ask is, What if?
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Jay Meisler, founder
Global Traders Association
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
